Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his three best bets for the Monday slate, featuring three underdogs in the Pirates, Reds and Marlins.
Giants (-150) at Reds (+130): O/U 8.5
The Giants are winners of five-straight games but those came against the Pirates and Rockies, while the Reds were grinding out six games versus the NL Central-leading Brewers.
San Francisco scored 32 runs over the last nine games, which is the third-fewest in the previous 15 days. Cincy scored 39 runs in the past 10 games (19th) while posting a similar batting average (.228) as the Giants (.223).
Logan Webb takes the mound for San Francisco and he’s a much better home pitcher than road.
Away from California, Webb is 4-4 in 10 starts with a 4.24 ERA, .262 OBA, and less than one strikeout per inning. The Giants are 5-5 in Webb’s 10 road starts this year, so there’s value in the home underdog.
Brandon Williamson is a 6-foot-6 LHP with gas. Cincy is 7-3 in his 10 starts this season and he’s posting his best statistical month thus far with a 2.25 ERA, .148 OBA, and four hits allowed in 8.0 innings (two starts).
I played the Reds on the ML at +130 odds and would go down to +110 or take the run line of +1.5 at -125 odds.
Pick: Reds ML (1u)
Guardians (-125) at Pirares (+105): O/U 9.5
Quinn Priester will make his MLB debut at home against Cleveland, while the Guardians’ Xzavion Curry will make his first start of the 2023 season and third of his young career.
Both these squads are a combined 0-6 since the All-Star break with sweeps courtesy of the Rangers and Giants. Cleveland was on the road for those three games and Pittsburgh was at home, so the travel advantage is in the Pirates’ favor, plus a crowd advantage.
Priester, plus catching prospect Endy Rodriguez and infield prospect Liover Peguero will join the Pirates on Monday, so expect a larger and more excited crowd. For Rodriguez, he joins Preister in making his MLB debut.
I expect a larger crowd at PNC Park and some youthful injections into that lineup. Pittsburgh is hunting for a win after losing the past two games in the eighth inning or later, so expect an exciting and fun effort.
Cleveland lost four straight and Pittsburgh is 1-7 in the past eight games so neither team is playing quality baseball right now. I grabbed the Buccos on the ML at +105 odds and wouldn’t talk anyone off the run line of +1.5 at -140 or better.
Pick: Pirates ML (1u)
Marlins (+100) at Cardinals (-120): O/U 9.5
St. Louis is 1-7 in Miles Mikolas’ last eight starts, including a 5-4 loss at Miami.
In that meeting with Miami, Mikolas went 6.1 innings and allowed four earned runs on four hits, including two homers.
Since then, Mikolas has not allowed an earned run in two starts over 10.0 innings against the Nationals and White Sox.
At home, Mikolas sports a 5.01 ERA, .284 OBA, and a 1-2 record in nine starts. On the other hand, Jesus Luzardo makes the start for Miami and the Marlins have won three consecutive with him.
I expect plenty of strikeouts as he’s posted eight or more in four straight. St. Louis has 96 Ks over the past 10 games (6th most).
I played the Fins on the ML at +100 odds and would go out to -115. I lean Luzardo Over 6.5 Ks at +115 odds down to -110.
Pick: Marlins ML (1u)
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