Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his best bet for the Friday slate, a play on the home underdog between the Coronado Rockies and New York Yankees.
Yankees (-210) at Rockies (+175): O/U 11.5
The second half of the season is about underway and one of the matchups that caught my interest was the Yankees and Rockies.
The pitching duel is New York’s Carlos Rodon and Colorado’s Austin Gomber, which makes the New York price tag of -210 overvalued, in my opinion.
Rodon has one career start at Coors Field and that came back in 2017, so this is not an ideal spot after the all-star break for the Yankees’ pitcher. In all three matchups during 2022 versus Colorado, Rodon was at home, so he is not used to the elevation.
Rodon made one start this year on July 7, right before the break, he went 5.1 innings (69 pitches) for four hits, two earned runs, one homer, and two strikeouts to two walks at home against the Cubs.
Gomber’s going through one of his best stretches throughout the 2023 season. Over the previous five starts, Gomber owns a 3.99 ERA and .241 OBA, which is pretty darn good for him.
Gomber went 18.0 innings over his past three starts with seven earned runs, 11 strikeouts to two walks and one homer on 16 hits allowed.
Colorado is also a much better offensive team at home, ranking top 10 in BA, OPS, OBP, SLG, RBIs, and runs scored compared to the bottom 10 on the road in all those areas.
New York is coming off a June that ranked last in batting average (.208) and two-worst in runs scored (88), so I doubt a short break will fix their offensive struggles, but Coors Field could help a little, I will admit.
I played Colorado +2.5 at -135 odds on BetMGM. DraftKings has +2 at -105 odds and FanDuel, plus most shops offer +1.5 at +100 or better, which I would play.
I would not be surprised to see the Rockies win. The Yankees are 3-7 in the last 10 road games.
Pick: Rockies +2.5 (1u)
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