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It’s been quite some time since we’ve had regular-season baseball, and after a lockout and a wild free agency, the new MLB season is upon us. PointsBet Sportsbook is offering win Totals for every team in the league, so John Venezia is breaking down the numbers along with his pick for each team. Plus, he offers some picks and value plays for some player awards.
AL EAST
Baltimore Orioles - O/U 63.5 Wins
The bottom feeders of the AL in 2021, the 52-win Orioles are looking to recapture the magic of the mid-2010’s teams. Despite being an all-around bad team, the O’s have some pretty good pieces in the lineup, especially with one of the best prospects in the game in Adley Rutschman right around the corner from the big leagues. The pitching staff is not even close to competing in this loaded division. Although I am a big fan of their ace, John Means. The AL East should be even better than it was last season, so sneaking out 12 more wins seems highly unlikely. Under 63.5 wins.
Boston Red Sox - O/U 84.5 Wins
Boston not only surprised me in 2021 with 92 wins but went deep in the playoffs. Like the Yankees, the lineup was not my issue… those boys can RAKE! It was the starting pitching sans Chris Sale. Somehow though, they managed to come up clutch night after night, which I don’t know how sustainable that is. Nonetheless, they are in a similar situation this year. Having just traded for SS Trevor Story, it boasts a huge impact on the lineup and creates one of the best middle infield duos between Story and Xander Bogaerts. However, even in a hitter-friendly Fenway Park, I am curious to see what kind of batter he is outside of Coors Field seeing how his home vs. away splits are night and day over the course of his career. Similar to last year, I expect places two through four in the division to be within 2 games apart from each other by the season’s end. Over 84.5 wins.
New York Yankees - O/U 91.5 Wins
Growing up in North Jersey, I have become so sick of hearing Yankee fans complain or act like they are a World Series team. Just because they spend like a drunken sailor does not mean they are in position to win the whole thing. In a shocking turn of events (sarcasm, obviously), they have a good lineup, especially with the addition of slugger Josh Donaldson. Yet again though, the rotation beyond Gerrit Cole calls for some concern. Luis Severino was one of the best young arms in the game a few years ago, but undergoing Tommy John surgery has called into question how effective he will be as a starter, as well as Jameson Taillon. New York needs reliable pitching, especially being in this slugfest division. I don’t know if I can see it. Under 91.5 wins.
Tampa Bay Rays - O/U 91.5 Wins
Moneyball 2.0 just finds a way to win ball games. Thanks to one of the best managers in baseball, Kevin Cash emphasizes the fundamentals of the game and maximizing his players. After a 100 win season and AL East title, the Rays will surely be missing star-studded ace Tyler Glasnow to Tommy John surgery. With the addition of once upon a time great SP Corey Kluber, TB will hopefully be able to mitigate that loss in the middle of an otherwise good rotation. It’s time for Wander Franco to be let off the leash. Despite being in a tough division, I hate fading Tampa Bay. Over 91.5 wins.
Toronto Blue Jays - O/U 92.5 Wins
Even before the gold-plated pickup of 3B Matt Chapman, I was all in on Toronto this season. With Chapman now holding down the hot corner, the Blue Jays have a legit chance to possess five players that could hit at least 25 home runs each. Toronto put the league on notice in 2021 after a 91 win campaign. Led by superstar and should-have-been-MVP Vladdy Guerrero Jr., the Jays are now one of the betting favorites to win the whole thing in 2022. Despite losing reigning CY Young winner Robbie Ray, his replacement in renaissance man Kevin Gausman could alleviate his departure. If I am overhyping this team, just let me live. Over 92.5 wins.
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AL CENTRAL
Chicago White Sox - O/U 92.5 Wins
A 93-win team a season ago, the White Sox blew through the AL Central with a division title by a 13-game difference, which was easily the largest margin in the league. They did not make a ton of changes to their already behemoth lineup, but they did let one of the best pitchers in the AL in Carlos Rodon depart. Rodon is definitely a key loss, but the White Sox luckily have a plethora of talented arms in the rotation. Not to mention, they picked up one of the best relievers in the league in Kendall Graveman to bolster one of the best bullpens in the MLB. Chicago came up short last season, but we should see them be in the mid-90s in terms of wins in 2022. Over 92.5 wins.
Cleveland Guardians - O/U 76.5 Wins
The Guardians, in my opinion, blew up their team while they were still in the championship window. Having snuck out 80 wins a season ago, this seems to be a sharp number. Aside from Jose Ramirez and Franmil Reyes, there is not a ton of firepower in this lineup. Pretty much the opposite of most teams in the league, the power for Cleveland is in their pitching led by 2020 AL CY Young winner Shane Bieber. If their arms stay healthy this year, I would have to lean with a slight Over 76.5 wins
Detroit Tigers - O/U 78.5 Wins
The 2021 Tigers were sort of a surprise winning 77 games. To kick off this new year, they decided to make a splash by signing SS/2B Javy Baez to a monster six year/$140 million dollar deal. With young star Akil Baddoo helping anchor the Detroit lineup, we could see this Tigers team score some runs. It remains to be seen how effective the pitching will be with a few arms that could be good enough. Over 78.5 wins.
Kansas City Royals - O/U 73.5 Wins
Although they did not acquire a big bat or offensive threat this winter, don’t sleep on the KC lineup. They welcome back SS Adalberto Mondesi, who missed most of the 2021 season. Many fans hope one of the top, if not the best, prospects in the MLB makes an appearance this season in Bobby Witt Jr. The main pick up was SP Zack Greinke, who won the AL CY Young for them all the way back in 2009. Still, the rotation will be a huge question mark. Having hit 74 wins last season, I think they can do it again in 2022. Over 73.5 wins.
Minnesota Twins - O/U 79.5 Wins
The Twinkies have been wheeling and dealing this winter. Picking up SS Carlos Correa was huge for their team, along with Gio Urshela and Gary Sanchez in the trade from the Yankees where they shipped out the “Bringer of Rain” in Josh Donaldson. The lineup should be strong, but as usual, I still have concerns about them when it comes to their rotation even with the acquisition of Sonny Gray. The AL Central should be a lot better this season, so I would not bet the house on the Twins being a near .500 ball club. Under 79.5 wins.
AL WEST
Houston Astros - O/U 92.5 Wins
The loss of SS Carlos Correa is astronomical, but Houston usually finds a way to overcome adversity. The Astros still have a strong lineup with Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Yordan Alvarez. Not to mention, their rotation welcomes back the other “JV” in Justin Verlander. This could be a division race between Houston and Seattle. I like the ‘Stros to go Over their projected win total of 92.5 games in 2022.
Los Angeles Angels - O/U 83.5 Wins
Every season, I have hope that the Angels will finally be a force to reckoned with… but I am usually disappointed. The best player in the game, Mike Trout, returns to their lineup after missing most of 2021 to join maybe “the most exciting player in the game” in reigning AL MVP Shohei Ohtani. Aside from health, the same question remains, “Will they get enough from their pitching staff?” The addition of Noah Syndergaard could help, but it still looks a little too unreliable. Under 83.5 wins.
Oakland Athletics - O/U 69.5 Wins
Over the last week or so, the total was steamed down from 75.5 to 69.5 thanks to the departures of their two best players in Matt Olson and Matt Chapman. The A’s have a stable of young talent that could help them return to their “Moneyball” ways, but it is not likely that happens in the next couple of seasons. 2022 is probably a struggle for them. Under 69.5 wins.
Seattle Mariners - O/U 84.5 Wins
After a surprise 90 win season from Seattle in 2021, the Mariners decided to attack in the off-season with a few huge pickups. Reigning AL CY Young winner Robbie Ray now anchors the top of the rotation with former Cincinnati Reds sluggers Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez holding down the middle of the lineup. It will be worth watching them to see if last year was a fluke, or if they are indeed ready to take the next step. Not only am I backing them to eclipse at least 85 wins, but I’m throwing a couple of fazools on Seattle to win the AL West (+450).
Texas Rangers - O/U 74.5 Wins
For a team that only had 60 wins a season ago, the Rangers sure are making some key moves in 2022. Acquiring SS Corey Seager, 2B Marcus Semien, and SP Jon Gray, Texas could be a team on the rise in the coming years. While they may possess one of the best middle-infield duos in the league, they still have a lot more building to do in order to be the contender they were over a decade ago. Even with a solid lineup, the pitching staff is extremely suspect. I’m taking Under 74.5 wins in 2022.
AL Winner: Toronto Blue Jays over Seattle Mariners
Most Bet: White Sox, Tigers, Yankees
Player Awards
MVP: Vladdy Guerrero Jr. (+350)
Value Pick: Alex Bregman (+3500)
Most Bet: Wander Franco and Aaron Judge
Cy Young: Dylan Cease (+1800)
Value Pick: Jose Berrios (+2000)
Most Bet: Shohei Ohtani and Gerrit Cole
Rookie of the Year: Julio Rodriguez (+800)
Value Pick: Riley Greene (+1500)
Most Bet: Julio Rodriguez and Riley Greene
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