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White Sox vs Astros Odds, Bets: Dylan Cease O/U 6.5 Strikeout prop

Dylan Cease

Dylan Cease

David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

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Dylan Cease O/U 6.5 Strikeouts vs. Astros

The White Sox and Astros open up for an exciting series following the All-Star break. Dylan Cease and Lance McCullers take the mound in Chicago for an AL powerhouse matchup between two World Series threats.

Focusing on Cease, this will be his third career meeting with Houston. During his rookie season in 2019, Cease recorded two strikeouts in 6.0 innings and 98 pitches. He allowed five hits and two earned runs.

Fast forward to 2021, Cease lasted 3.1 innings and 74 pitches, permitting six earned runs on four hits and two walks. Cease struck out four.

For his career, Cease has six strikeouts in 9.1 innings versus Houston.

Against current Houston hitters, Cease posts a .217 OBA versus nine total batters in 35 plate appearances. He has seven strikeouts to five walks and seven RBIs allowed.

The Astros are one of the hardest teams to sit down, and we’ll get to that, but I do not expect much to change post All-Star break.

Per baseballsavant.com, you can see why Houston’s offense is so elite when it comes to striking out.

A majority of the hitters are posting great whiff and swing percentages versus opposing teams. Red is valued as great, and blue is poor -- a lot of red on this screenshot.

Houston lineup

Houston lineup

NBC’s model predicts Cease to record 7.4 strikeouts in 6.0 innings versus Houston -- a tough ask of the 25-year-old.

CHW HOU

CHW HOU

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Looking at one of the most intriguing factors for backing an Under, Cease’s spin rate is not ideal for a second time against the Astros’ lineup.

His most recent RPM of 2428 versus Baltimore is lower than the 2652 average he posted against Houston earlier this season, per baseballsavant.com. After that Houston start on July 17th, you can see the dip in Cease’s RPM.

Cease spin rate

Cease spin rate

Mix that in with Houston’s 80 strikeouts over the past 80 games, and it’s hard to imagine Cease getting seven himself. In that 10-game span, the Astros also walked 31 times.

The Astros own the second-most walks in the last 30 days with 107 -- one back of the Brewers for the most.

Cease walked at least two hitters in four of the past five games and three straight. Against the Orioles and Twins (played twice), Ceased totaled seven walks to 21 strikeouts in 16.1 innings.

Cease has been elite at home this season, posting a 1.81 ERA and 4-0 record in eight starts while holding opponents to a .190 OBA.

However, at home, Cease has faced the Twins (two times), Tigers (two times), Royals (two times), Orioles (once) and Rangers (once). None of those teams are above .500.

I bet his numbers seem a little less impressive now. On the road against what we could say is better competition, Cease has a 6.27 ERA, .257 OBA and 3-4 record in 10 starts.

Against two top teams outside the Astros, let’s go with the Yankees and Red Sox -- Cease is 0-2 in 9.0 combined innings with six strikeouts apiece (12 combined).

He only lasted 4.2 innings against the Angels and 3.1 versus the Indians for two more AL matchups or teams over .500.

Against teams over .500 in general, Cease is 1-2 in five starts against the Astros, Yankees, Red Sox, Reds and Angels. Cease has gone Under 6.5 strikeouts in four of those five starts (80%).

He’s allowed 16 earned runs and walked 15 compared to 30 strikeouts -- 11 of those Ks coming from a 9-0 win over the Reds.

That was the only win and time Cease went past 4.2 innings pitched and Over 6.5 strikeouts versus a team over .500.

Removing that Reds’ game, Cease has 20 hits, 19 strikeouts, 16 earned runs and 12 walks in 16.1 innings over four games versus teams over .500.

I am not convinced Cease goes 6.0 innings against the Astors based on how he performs against talented teams and lineups -- even at home.

I see his home averages taking a hit tonight -- I will back the Under 6.5 strikeouts and hold my breath for the first few innings.

Pick: Dylan Cease Under 6.5 Strikeouts (1u)

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