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Jose Berrios O/U 6.5 Strikeouts vs. Tigers
Redemption. The first meeting between Jose Berrios and the Tigers resulted in a one-strikeout performance, but that came on the road, which is key.
Berrios is the home pitcher today, and when that is the case, he has been very profitable to the Over. At 6-2 (75%) to the Over 6.5 strikeouts, Berrios is looking for Over No. 5 in a row at home.
One part of Berrios game that has improved lately is his chase miss percentages, per baseballsavant.com. He nearly triple it versus the White Sox in his second meeting compared to the first -- I’ll add this is his second against Detroit again.
NBC’s model projects Berrios to record 7.1 strikeouts in 6.2 innings pitched, hitting the Over.
He has reached seven strikeouts in three of his past five starts and 6.1 innings or longer in four of the previous seven.
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Detroit is striking out 25.3% to RHP in the last 30 days, the sixth-most. On the year, they rank third in that category with 26.5% overall.
The Tigers offense has been pretty stagnant this season when it comes to wRC+, ranking 18th over the previous 30 days and on the year.
Against the Tigers, Berrios has 88 plate appearances and struck out 19, allowing 21 hits and nine walks to five RBIs.
That is a 21.5% strikeout percentage, which is not the greatest, but Detroit does have the most strikeouts in the past six games with 64 to 17 walks.
The Tigers have the most strikeouts on the road in the MLB at 494 in 47 games. Detroit owns a .238 BA away from home, playing the third-most road games (47), and owning the fifth-most AB (1,589).
Berrios should excel against the Tigers in a second meeting with those numbers -- and this time at home. Berrios has 62 strikeouts in 49.0 innings at home, a 1.26 strikeout per inning average and a .221 OBA.
At those rates, Berrios should able to hit seven strikeouts through six innings, a length he has reached six of the past seven starts. Back the Twins’ best pitcher today as he takes on the strikeout-prone Tigers.
Pick: Jose Berrios Over 6.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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