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We’ve wrapped up a couple of great Championship Series matchups which were filled with plenty of fireworks, and we’re on to the World Series between the Houston Astros and Atlanta Braves. One team expected to get this far before the season, while the other has hit their way past some stiff competition in the National League. So, what can we expect in this one? Let’s break down each team and see where the best bet is.
Houston Astros
The Astros are deserving favorites on paper. They finished the season with the best wRC+ in baseball, slashing .267/.339/.444. There are seemingly no flaws in their offense, which is able to mash both lefties and righties, and every type of pitch. Just when you think Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa are cooling off, too, Kyle Tucker and a cast of role players step up in their place.
The issue with the Astros has always been the pitching, which was an easy thing to overcome in the ALDS when Lance McCullers was shoving. McCullers is now dealing with a forearm strain which will keep him out of this year’s Fall Classic.
That leaves Houston in a precarious position. It will go with Framber Valdez in Game 1, who comes in off the back of a brilliant eight-inning gem in the ALCS. After that, it gets muddy. There’s Luis Garcia, the hero of Game 6, who had been mighty ineffective this postseason to that point. Then there’s Jose Urquidy, who the Astros had so much faith in that they left him off the postseason roster for the ALDS. Zack Greinke is likely in line between those three, and while he has a wealth of experience he’s not been anywhere close to himself since going on the COVID-19 list.
The Astros’ bullpen has been a bright spot, though, with a 3.42 ERA to rank second in the postseason. This is a massive change after a year full of misery. Most of it’s due to the performance of young Cristian Javier, who has fired 7 2/3 scoreless innings in relief, though Ryne Stanek, Phil Maton and Kendall Gravemen have been brilliant in their own right with ERAs near just one run.
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Atlanta Braves
On the surface, the Braves don’t look like an imposing team. They carry a .725 OPS in the postseason into this series with just 12 home runs and 40 runs scored in total over 10 games. For comparison, the Astros have scored 67 runs.
With that said, you need to consider the pitching this team has seen. Atlanta had to go up against one of the toughest starting staffs in baseball when it faced Milwaukee, then turned around and faced Max Scherzer, Walker Buehler and one of the league’s best bullpens in the NLCS. With all of that said, it’s encouraging to see these numbers.
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The Braves’ bullpen has been a hair worse than the Astros’ this postseason with a 3.56 ERA in 43 innings, but it was one of the best until a late-series collapse against the Dodgers. When you look at staffs as a whole, though, the Braves’ 3.41 ERA is the superior one in this series.
Atlanta has yet to announce a starter past Charlie Morton in Game 1, but the veteran has been one of the best postseason pitchers in baseball and lines up to pitch multiple times here. After that, there’s the surprising Ian Anderson and Max Fried, who has been great with the exception of Game 5 against the Dodgers.
Betting this series
The Braves have a world of value here. Sure, they’re not as gifted offensively, but their ability to come up with timely hits is uncanny. They’ve struggled all year against left-handed pitching, but with Travis d’Arnaud returning in the second half and Jorge Soler, Adam Duvall and Eddie Rosario joining the fold, they’ve found a way through southpaws. This is a pesky team, and one that should challenge a weak Astros pitching staff.
I also have little faith in Valdez and Luis Garcia on the front-end of the rotation and think the Braves should get out to a hot start here. I like taking the plus odds and this correct score bet and then perhaps coming back with the Astros at plus odds later in the series.
Edge: Braves +120, Braves 2-1 after three Games (+175)
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