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Zach Eflin O/U 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Marlins
Zach Eflin just met the Marlins and gets a repeat start, this time in Miami.
On the road, Eflin has two, eight, eight and nine strikeouts, in that order.
He has consistently improved this season and the Marlins struggle with the fourth-highest strikeout percentage versus right-handed pitching (26.8%).
Eflin is averaging 1.0 strikeouts per inning, and NBC’s model projects Eflin for 7.2 strikeouts in 6.2 innings. He is one of three pitchers to light up green with excellent value on the slate today, and I have to agree with how he has performed this season.
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Eflin has six or more strikeouts in seven of his nine starts this season. He has also lasted 6.0 innings or longer in every start, reaching 6.2-plus in four.
Versus the Marlins, he tossed 89 pitches for six strikeouts, 6.0 innings, six hits and two earned runs. Eflin allowed two or fewer runs in six of his nine starts this season, and the O/U is set at 7.0 for this matchup.
That is a positive sign, along with the Marlins having the fifth-most strikeouts to right-handed pitchers (329) and fifth-fewest walks (91). [[ad:athena]]
The Marlins are tied for the league lead over the last seven days with 70 strikeouts in six games. Miami is hitting .237 in that span (17th) and averaging 4.1 runs per game.
Eflin has thrown 30% or more of his pitches in the strike zone in five of his nine starts, including 33% against Miami. That is tied for third-most against any opponent and worth a bet at 5.5 strikeouts once again.
I would not play this past -135 odds or at 6.5 strikeouts.
Pick: Zach Eflin Over 5.5 Strikeouts (1u)
