With Opening Day less than one week away, I spoke with some traders at PointsBet to get a beat on what teams were being bet on to finish Over and Under their projected win totals.
Teams Being Bet On Most To Finish Over Projected Win Totals
New York Yankees, 95.5 (-110)
As expected, the New York Yankees are the team drawing the most Over wagers in the win total market. The Yankees, which are +160 to win the American League, have been knocking on the door for the past few seasons.
After adding another big-time arm in Corey Kluber to pair with Gerrit Cole, the Yankees’ rotation can be a strength for this team, especially when you consider they have Jameson Taillon, Jordan Montgomery, and Domingo German rounding it out. Offensively, the Yankees have just as much firepower as anyone in the league. Getting to 96 wins is a real possibility for the Bronx Bombers.
Chicago White Sox, 90.5 (-110)
If the San Diego Padres are the National League’s darlings, then the Chicago White Sox are the American League’s darlings. The White Sox, which are -115 to win the American League Central, are primed for a deep playoff run this October. They are loaded with bats like Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson, Luis Robert and Yoan Moncada.
Lucas Giolito leads the rotation and I told the guys from the “Circling the Bases” podcast that Giolito was my pick for A.L. Cy Young this season. Dallas Keuchel is a crafty veteran with big-game experience, Lance Lynn is an innings eater who feels like he has been pitching since the 1970s and Dylan Cease is an exciting young arm. The bullpen is outstanding and it all leads to Liam Hendriks. The White Sox also have the luxury of playing in a division with only one other good team. The Over is the play.
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New York Mets, 90.5 (Over -115) (Under-105)
The New York Mets have the third shortest odds to win the National League at +525. What a time to be alive. The Mets got busy this offseason fielding a team that can compete in the very tough National League East. The Mets added Francisco Lindor, who is a top 10 National League MVP candidate at +1220 and their rotation is led by all-world pitcher Jacob deGrom, who the favorite to win the National League Cy Young award at +400. Carlos Carrasco, Marcus Stroman, and Taijuan Walker round out the rotation and this team is good from top to bottom. It should be a fun summer in Queens. My only concern for the Mets is playing in the National League East, which is the toughest division in baseball. I would still take the over on 90.5 wins.
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Teams Being Bet On Most To Finish Under Projected Win Totals
Cincinnati Reds, 81.5 ( -110)
The Reds enter the season without much fanfare, but they do have some good bats in their lineup with guys like Joey Votto, Nick Castellanos, and Eugenio Suarez, so there is some potential there offensively. The Reds pitching staff leaves a lot to be desired and for the most part, the Reds should hover around .500 or just below that all season.
Oakland Athletics, 85.5 (-110)
Win total market bettors at PointsBet are fading the Oakland Athletics and I can understand why. When you look at Oakland on paper, nothing really stands out, yet somehow every season, Oakland is right in the thick of things in the American League. PointsBet has the defending A.L. West champs at +175 to win the division again. The only team with shorter odds than the A’s are the Houston Astros. The Athletics do a good job of hanging around season after season. I would not be so quick to fade them.
Texas Rangers, 67.5 (Over -115) (Under 105)
The Under on the Texas Rangers’ win total has been bet so much that the over 67.5 is now seeing action and has been juiced to -115. I do see Texas getting over this number, but barely. The Rangers have to deal with the National League West when they play interleague games, so those games vs. the Dodgers and Padres are the reason bettors are skeptical. This is a market that I would advise you to stay away from.
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