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Jameson Taillon O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Blue Jays
Jameson Taillon met Toronto in April for his second start of 2021 and the second of his career versus the Blue Jays.
He lasted 3.2 innings and 84 pitches, allowing eight hits and five earned runs. Taillon finished with three strikeouts and one walk.
Against the Blue Jays in his career, he has no success. In 45 plate appearances stretched out over 13 Toronto hitters, they have four strikeouts. Just four.
The group owns a .279 BA and .878 OPS versus Taillon with 13 hits, seven RBIs and two walks.
Per statmuse, 12 of the last 15 RHP (80%) went Under 5.5 strikeouts versus Toronto and 11 of the last 15 (73.3%) went Under 4.5 strikeouts.
Looking at his August, Taillon posted a 5.52 ERA, a .248 OBA and 33 strikeouts over 31.0 innings and six starts. That is 5.5 strikeouts per game with a 3-3 (50%) record to O/U 4.5 and 4-2 (66.7%) to Under 5.5 strikeouts.
Taillon has hit Over 5.5 strikeouts only 8-of-26 times (30.7%) on the season, so if you can get the 5.5, play it.
In his last two starts, Taillon has an 11.88 ERA, .265 OBA, and 8.1 innings pitched. Toronto is not the ideal opponent for Taillon during the day, where he sports a 0.96 strikeout per inning average.
I doubt he makes it past 5.0 innings and five strikeouts. Play the Under.
Pick: Jameson Taillon Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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HYUN-JIN RYU O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Yankees
Hyun-Jin Ryu faces a familiar opponent in the Yankees as he will make his fourth start versus New York this season.
Ryu owns a 2.50 ERA, .200 OBA and 15 strikeouts over 18.0 innings and three starts against the Yankees. His first two starts versus the Yankees came in April, and he recorded five and seven Ks.
In the latest versus New York (6/15), Ryu lasted 3.0 innings but only notched three strikeouts, walked four and allowed five hits for three earned runs.
In August, Ryu has been inconsistent. Starting off September with New York’s lineup is not the recipe for consistency either. He finished his six starts in August with 0.81 strikeouts per inning and only one road game (Seattle).
Ryu is 3-3 to the Under 4.5 Ks in August and in his last six road starts, he is 4-2 to the Under 4.5 Ks.
Per statmuse, five of the last 11 LHP went Under 4.5 strikeouts vs. the Yankees. That isn’t a great number for the trends I like to rock, but with his K numbers, I think New York can get to him with power.
On the season, Ryu is 11-5 to the Under 4.5 strikeouts (68.7%) since June 4th, per NBC’s player prop model.
On the entire year, he posts just a 54% hit rate to the Over. He is 50% or better to the Under in the last five and 10 games.
In his 12 day game starts, Ryu owns a 4.46 ERA, .269 OBA and 0.80 strikeouts per inning average.
The Yankees will be tough. Ryu has faced 13 different New York hitters for a combined 151 plate appearances. The group owns a .197 BA and .628 OPS, but only 27 strikeouts to 32 hits, nine RBIs and nine walks.
I expect 3-4 strikeouts from the South Korean pitcher, so back the Under 4.5 Ks.
Pick: Hyun-Jin Ryu Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)
Trevor Williams O/U 3.5 Strikeouts vs. Nationals
Since being acquired by the Mets, Trevor Williams has a 0.69 ERA in two starts and two relief appearances!
That MVP-like stretch came in 13.0 innings with nine strikeouts to four walks. If you cannot tell that I am being sarcastic about the MVP stretch, go watch “The Office” of something.
Williams is making his third start with the Mets and second against the Nationals since joining the team.
He managed two strikeouts over 4.1 innings and 52 pitches in his first start with New York. In the next start versus the Marlins, Williams went 4.1 innings and posted four strikeouts on 57 pitches.
Williams faced the Nats earlier with the Cubs and recorded five Ks in 4.2 innings and 77 pitches.
I think he is good for 4.0 innings today and at first sight of danger starting in the third inning, or beyond, there should be movement in the bullpen.
Per statmuse, seven of the last 12 RHP (58.3%) went Under 4.5 strikeouts against the Nationals, but only five-of-12 (41.6%) did Under 3.5 Ks.
This is a low number but there is more! An interesting stat I found was eight of the last 12 RHP versus Washington lasted 5.0 innings or fewer.
When Williams pitches 5.0 innings or fewer, he is 8-6 to the Under 3.5 strikeouts (57.1%) and 10-4 to the Under 4.5 Ks (71.4%). He has hit the Under 3.5 strikeouts in seven of the last 10 times at 5.0 innings pitched or less (70%).
He averages 3.0 strikeouts per game in the last 10 starts at 5.0 innings or fewer and 2.3 in the past three.
Williams has faced nine different hitters and Patrick Corbin, combining for 38 plate appearances. They own a .306 BA, .946 OPS and seven hits, six strikeouts and five walks. Corbin is even 2-for-2 against him.
The best part, Williams owns a 7.27 ERA on the road and 6.11 ERA during the day, plus a .327 and .328 OBA.
Williams also permits about 1.39 hits per inning to 1.00 Ks in each.
Play the Under and expect a quick exit around the fourth or fifth innings.
Pick: Trevor Williams Under 3.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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Kyle Freeland O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Giants
Round two. Kyle Freeland versus the red-hot San Francisco Giants.
What could go wrong? Well, if you’re riding the Under, hopefully, a lot.
Freeland has only made five day starts this season, and they have not gone as planned.
He sports a 2-0 record but owns a 6.27 ERA, .312 OBA and 24 hits allowed over 18.2 innings (18 Ks). The Giants offense normally bails him out.
Freeland met the Giants about a month ago (8/14) and had six strikeouts over 6.0 innings.
He has not started since 8/27 but had a one-inning relief appearance versus Texas on Wednesday (9/1). Freeland walked two, struck out one and allowed a earned run over 21 pitches.
Per statmuse, seven of the last 10 starting LHP went Under 4.5 strikeouts versus the Giants. I like that.
Freeland has destroyed the opposition at home in his last three starts, recording five, six and 10 strikeouts. However, those games were against the Cubs, Marlins and Diamondbacks.
Freeland has hit the Over 4.5 strikeouts in the last five starts and that is the longest stretch of the season.
The regression is going to come and when he’s pitched 5.2 innings or less this season compared to 6.0 or more, his average is 3.4 strikeouts per game to 4.1, so hopefully he pitches under 6.0 innings.
In his career, Freeland has 134 plate appearances against San Francisco for 21 strikeouts, 31 hits, 11 RBIs and 10 walks. That group of Giant hitters have a combined .299 OBA and .807 OPS versus Freeland.
The Giants in September are a different animal than the three of those bottom-feeders he dogged at home, so back Freeland to have an early exit and go Under his strikeout total of 4.5.
The Giants now own the NL West lead and they don’t want to let it go.
Pick: Kyle Freeland Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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