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Tyler Mahle O/U 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Cardinals
Tyler Mahle will make his fourth start of the season against the Cardinals.
The Reds are one spot back of the Padres for the final wildcard spot, while the Cardinals trail by three games. This will be one of the most important starts of the season for Mahle and he is facing St. Louis at a pleasant time.
St. Louis is one of the highest strikeout teams over the past week. The Cardinals have 65 strikeouts in seven games, the fourth-most only behind the Mets, Indians and Yankees.
The Cardinals are hitting .227 in that span (24th) with an OPS of .687 (23rd). Mahle has faced 13 different hitters and pitchers on this St. Louis roster and the lot has a .185 batting average and .514 OPS.
Mahle also owns 31 strikeouts to 11 walks in 123 plate appearances versus the Cardinals roster.
Five of the last 10 RHP against the Cardinals have gone Over 5.5 strikeouts, but when you take out the two spot starters, this number has hit in the last four and five of eight (62.5%), per statmuse.
On the year, Mahle has been a cash cow to the Over 5.5 strikeouts, hitting 19-of-28 times (68%). Mahle has recorded six or more strikeouts in the past three starts versus the Tigers, Marlins and Brewers.
Mahle is 5-1 (83.3%) in the last six games and hit 60% or better in the last three, five and 10-game splits as well, per NBC’s player prop model.
On the road this season, Mahle has hit Over 5.5 strikeouts in 11-of-15 (73%) while holding an ERA of 1.90. Mahle is 7-2 on the road with a .190 OBA and 1.12 strikeouts per inning average.
Impressive numbers all around and with St. Louis allowing guys like Adrian Houser and Mitch White to hit six or more, why can’t Mahle?
Pick: Tyler Mahle Over 5.5 Strikeouts (1.5u)
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Ian Anderson O/U 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Marlins
Ian Anderson cashed us an easy Under in his last start, now he is facing a Marlins squad who has hit RHP well lately.
Anderson has zero strikeouts in his past two games and 10 over his last five. His prop line of 5.5 is too high for someone averaging two strikeouts over the last five outings.
Seven of the last 10 RHP went Under 5.5 strikeouts (70%) against the Marlins, per statmuse. Five of the past eight (62.5%), if you count the spot start from Sam Coonrod and Marcus Stroman‘s early exit.
At home this season, Anderson owns a 3.64 ERA, .211 OBA and 46 strikeouts in 50.1 innings pitched.
The youngsters not bad, but over the past two games, he is. His ERA is 4.15, OBA at .281, plus six walks and zero strikeouts in 8.2 innings pitched.
Anderson has gone Under 5.5 strikeouts in his last three home starts and eight of his last 10 starts overall (80%), per NBC’s model.
Back Anderson to go Under 5.5 strikeouts as he struck out four but walked five in his previous 2.1 inning start versus Miami.
I would play this down to 4.5 for +100 or better.
Pick: Ian Anderson Under 5.5 strikeouts (1u)
Editor’s Note: Get an edge with our premium Betting Tools that are packed with live odds, betting trends, predictions, player prop projections, our extensive Edge Finder and much more. And don’t forget to use promo code VAUGHN10 to get 10% off. Click here to learn more!
Trevor Rogers O/U 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Braves
The Braves have some wild trends versus LHP, let me tell ya about it.
14 of the last 15 LHP went Under 5.5 strikeouts versus the Braves (93.3%) and 22 of the previous 25 (88%), per statmuse.
Going down to the 4.5 prop number, six of the last 10 LHP went Under (60%) and 10 of the past 15 (66.7%).
Rogers has faced 11 Braves’ hitters and pitchers, striking out 10 in 39 plate appearances.
Atlanta owns a .353 batting average and .862 OPS versus him. That has been a small sample size, with Freddie Freeman being the top guy versus Rogers with eight plate appearances.
Atlanta has 46 strikeouts (11th) in the last six games with 19 walks (8th).
On the year, this marks Rogers third meeting with the Braves. He struck out seven in 5.0 innings pitched and four in 4.0 innings over the second meeting.
In the previous meeting with Atlanta, Rogers struck out Max Fried and Jonathan Lucroy as two of his four punch outs.
In the first, Ozzie Albies and Alex Jackson (no longer with team) twice each, plus Ian Anderson once for five of his seven Ks.
Albies did not strikeout in the next meeting against Rogers and I expect his fellow teammates to carry suit and continue hitting against him well. Leftest hit .261 off him with a .367 OBP, so expect the few LHB in the lineup to make the difference tonight.
I want a better price on Rogers than what I am currently seeing at publishing, so I will update on Twitter the best price on him when props become more accessible.
Pick: Trevor Rogers Under 5.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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