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Jose Urquidy O/U 3.5 Strikeouts vs. Red Sox
Jose Urquidy gets the Game 3 start as Lance McCullers will miss the ALCS.
Urquidy makes his first postseason start of 2021 and fifth of his career.
In his postseason career, Urquidy made four starts, going 4.1 (twice) and 5.0 innings (67-79 pitches). He recorded three strikeouts twice and four strikeouts twice while walking four and permitted six earned runs.
Per statmuse, Urquidy has totaled three or four strikeouts in all four postseason starts and failed to go more than 5.0 innings. I do not expect anything to change against the Boston Red Sox.
Boston also has not allowed any starting pitcher to go Over 3.5 strikeouts in the postseason. Six of the seven have failed to go more than 2.2 innings pitched.
In 2021, Urquidy faced the Red Sox once (May 31st) and went 6.0 innings strong for nine strikeouts, one walk and one earned run (three hits).
Houston won 11-2, and Urquidy struck out FOUR of his first EIGHT hitters. That will not happen again.
No Red Sox hitters have more than five career plate appearances against Urquidy, which is a positive for the hitter in the postseason.
We have seen a plethora of pitchers get pulled when the going gets rough, like Framber Valdez or Luis Garcia. This contest will be in Boston, which does not help Urquidy’s cause.
Urquidy tosses the fastball almost 55% of the time for the season and has subpar percentile ranks in K%, whiff% and xwOBA, per baseballsavant.com.
With three primary pitches and his xwOBA trending in the wrong direction for his first postseason start, I am not very confident in Urquidy facing the Red Sox in Boston.
Urquidy has 13 strikeouts on the road in his last three starts (15.2 innings), plus seven earned runs. Overall, he owns a 3.86 ERA, .229 OBA and 0.89 strikeouts per inning away from Houston.
Expect 5.0 or fewer innings from Urquidy and Houston to rely on the bullpen early if they have to.
Houston does not want to go down 2-1 with a Game 4 in Boston. I could see Urquidy on a pitch/inning count as well because this moment will likely be too big for him.
Pick: Jose Urquidy Under 3.5 Strikeouts (1.5u)
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