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We’ve arrived at the final day of the season, and there isn’t a meaningful game in sight. We can still make some money, though, and I’ll get into how.
Detroit Tigers (+125) vs. Seattle Mariners (-145) Total: 7.5
When the going is tough, we rely on just about any little edge we can. Today’s could be that Marco Gonzales is slated to pitch until his arm damn near falls off.
That’s right, Seattle plans on using Gonzales as long as he possibly can go to protect its bullpen for Friday’s wild-card opener, which means we could very easily see him pitch a complete game. With that, I have to go over on his strikeout prop.
Gonzales isn’t exactly a premier strikeout arm, but he at least gets a Tigers team striking out a little bit more than league average at 22% over the last week, and he should go deep enough to cash this.
Edge: Marco Gonzales over 4.5 strikeouts (-120)
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Colorado Rockies (+260) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-315) Total: 8
Similarly, I’ll throw you another edge that I see today. The Dodgers have made the postseason in the last five seasons, and Clayton Kershaw has pitched in four of those years. His final start of the season has been largely a flop.
In 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, Kershaw went four, five, one (in relief) and four innings, respectively. In three of those four games, the opponent scored more than 2.5 runs, which leads me to believe that the Rockies can do it here.
Colorado has the third-best ISO in the last week of play, and while it has some beefy numbers because of its home park, it still has enough power in some of these bats to muscle one out of Dodger Stadium a couple of times.
Edge: Rockies over 2.5 runs (-115)
