The weekend is here, and what better a way to ring it in than a loaded 14-game slate? We’ve got some divisional rivalries getting going and some big names toeing the rubber all around the league, and with that I’ve picked out a couple of my favorite bets. Let’s get into them.
Arizona Diamondbacks (+110) vs. New York Mets (-130) Total: 7
Let’s start with a bet I absolutely love. The Mets have absolutely no business being favored in this game, even if they’re at home. Arizona has smashed lefties all season long to the tune of a 131 wRC+ to rank second in baseball in the split. Today’s starter for New York, David Peterson, is a lefty that’s been smashed so far this year.
The soft-tosser has allowed 40.3% of the ball that have been put back in play off of him to travel 95 mph or more, which is around 5% worse than league average, and he’s yielded seven barrels in just 24 1/3 innings. Put that all together and you’ve got a 5.24 expected ERA. I’m excited to take a team that’s so strong against lefties matched up with a lefty that relies on giving up weak contact. These Diamondbacks bats have proven to be lively in the right spots this year.
I’m even more excited to back Zac Gallen, who ranks among the top 24% of the league in expected batting average and in the top 20% in strikeout rate. He’s been pretty stellar since arriving on the scene three years ago, and has only seemed to get better with every start. Against an offense that is simply lost at the moment, he should shove, and he should get plenty of run support.
Edge: Diamondbacks +110
San Diego Padres (-145) vs. San Francisco Giants (+125) Total: 7.5
If you’re looking for the most overpriced starter in baseball, look no further. I’m not exactly sure what Snell has done to garner such respect from bookmakers, but surely it has nothing to do with his performances over the last two seasons. Snell has backed up a gaudy 36.9% hard-hit rate in 2019 with an even-worse 39.1% mark this year, which is 7% worse than his career average.
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Not only is he giving up hard contact, he’s giving out free passes. His walk rate is all the way out to 12.8%, and in two starts against the Giants so far this year he’s walked seven hitters in 10 innings. The Giants walk at the fourth-highest clip in baseball, and they should have plenty of traffic on the basepaths once again against Snell. Unlike in starts past, however, I don’t think the lefty will get so lucky.
Another storyline here is Anthony DeSclafani, who at age 31 has finally begun to figure it all out on the hill. He’s pitched to a 2.00 ERA in six starts with excellent peripherals. The Giants are the value here by a wide margin.
Edge: Giants +125
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