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We enter yet another summer weekend the only way we know how — with a massive baseball slate to bet on. I’ve got plays on two matchups and I’ll get to them now.
New York Mets (-131) vs. Los Angeles Angels (+110) Total: 8.5
You know about Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor and Starling Marte — but despite all of those names hitting from the right side of the plate against left-handers, the Mets have seriously struggled in that split. New York is down in 18th this season when it comes to wRC+ against southpaws, standing barely above average at 103.
It’s hardly a convincing number, and in those plate appearances the Mets’ strikeout rate – normally a strength — sits at a relatively high 20.2%. That’s part of the reason I see a tough road into this game on Friday night against Jhonathan Diaz and the Angels.
On top of that, the Mets may be without Alonso and Marte again, further hurting their chances. Diaz has been great with a 1.32 ERA in three outings, and while he has a 4.03 xERA the sample is still far too small to make any sort of judgment on. He’s been pretty good at getting outs, and that counts for something.
On the other side of this one, Tylor Megill brings an unspectacular 4.41 ERA into this one. I respect the talent that he has but at this point his above-average strikeout numbers have yet to make any sort of impact at the major-league level. The Angels are coming out of their funk here and can pick up another win against a wounded Mets side.
Edge: Angels +110
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Los Angeles Dodgers (-160) vs. San Francisco Giants (+135) Total: 9
Look, man. I didn’t think I’d be here in June betting on Jakob Junis, but he’s caught my eye. The right-hander, once thought to be coming to the end of his time in the major leagues due to his poor performance, has found it with San Francisco this year.
Junis has completely stopped throwing his four-seamer, which was getting lit up, and has chosen to try and pitch to contact with his sinker. The results have been great to this point judging by his 2.51 ERA, though his 3.98 xERA would indicate he’s going to regress a bit here.
With that being said, the Dodgers are just outside of the bottom 10 of the league in wRC+ over the last two weeks and have not been walking at the elite rate we have grown accustomed to. L.A. is going to struggle against a guy in Junis who has been excellent at limiting walks his entire career, and with some sluggish offensive nights recently this game could definitely go towards the Giants.
I’m also not a big believer in Walker Buehler, whose 3.84 ERA and 4.12 xERA tell the story of a guy who has simply not had it since the first half of 2021. Give me SF.
Edge: Giants +135
