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Trevor Rogers O/U 6.5 Strikeouts vs. Nationals
Trevor Rogers faced Washington earlier in the season and struggled in some stretches, but last 5.0 innings and 77 pitches against the Nationals. Rogers struck out six and walked three, allowing three earned runs on four hits.
Rogers did impress against the Nationals with six strikeouts through four innings. However, the guys that Rogers did strike out were the following: Starlin Castro, Yadiel Hernandez, Jordy Mercer, Max Scherzer, Trea Turner and Ryan Zimmerman.
Rogers will not see Scherzer (of course), Castro (on leave), Mercer (PH last night) or Hernandez (I presume) for this matchup.
Against the Marlins last night, the Nationals rolled out three left-handed batters (LHB), Juan Soto, Andrew Stevenson and Gerardo Parra. The three of them went bananas in the Nats’ 18-1 win, and I expect them to be in the lineup once again.
I say that because Rogers’ OBA to LHB is .237 on the season compared to .196 versus RHB. The more lefties, the better versus Rogers.
On the road, Rogers has a .210 OBA compared to .197 at home. His 1.21 strikeout per innings average is one of the reasons why he was selected to the All-Star game, but against the Nationals a second time around, I see a different outcome.
In July, opponents are hitting .270, and Rogers owns a 4.00 ERA. He lasted 9.0 innings in two starts and struck out 12 to two walks. Rogers also had four earned runs and 10 walks.
The Marlins rookie has now permitted two or more earned runs in four straight starts, which is unlike him. It took Rogers 11 straight games before he allowed two or more earned runs in back-to-back starts.
Over his last eight starts, Rogers has permitted two or more in six of them and at least one in all eight. Teams are starting to catch on, and the Nationals are a tough team to sit down.
NBC’s model predicts Rogers to strike out 6.8 in 6.0 innings, but I have concerns he reaches that versus the Nationals. This line is 6.5 on a few markets and 5.5 on most, so shop around, but I like the Under on both.
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The Nationals are striking out 19.5% of the time to LHP in the last 30 days. Washington ranks tied 14th overall with 202 strikeouts in 25 games during that span (8.08 per game).
Washington is also hitting .292 in the past 25 games (1st), .314 in the last 11 (1st) and .364 in the previous four (2nd). They have been raking, and 38 runs in the past four games and 80 in the last 11 is hard to ignore.
The last eight starting LHP have gone Under six strikeouts versus the Nationals and five-of-25 (25%). Only five LHP has gone 6.0 innings or longer against the Nationals in the last 25 starts, and one hit six or more strikeouts -- Clayton Kershaw needed 6.0 to get six, per statmuse.
Not one LHP in the last 25 has gone past 6.0 innings versus Washington, and with Max Fried being the only to hit seven Ks in 25 tries, I will back Rogers to struggle in his first start since the All-Star game.
Rogers has hit the Over 5.5 strikeouts in 15-of-18 games (90%), which is crazy and impressive, but the Nationals can very well be one of those outlier games.
Rogers has hit the Over 6.5 strikeouts in 9-of-18 games (50%), so there is much more value on the 6.5 number when playing the Under. I would play the Under 5.5 or 6.5, whichever you have, but attempt to get +100 money for the 5.5 -- like PointsBet is offering.
Pick: Trevor Rogers Under 6.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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