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Jake Odorizzi O/U 5.5 STRIKEOUTS VS. RANGERS
Jake Odorizzi takes the mound for the Houston Astros to make his sixth home start of the season. He is 0-3 on the year in Houston with a 4.50 ERA, .264 OBA and 0.77 strikeouts per innings.
This prop is 5.5 on some markets and 4.5 on others. I am riding the Under tonight and would play the 5.5 at one unit and the 4.5 at a half unit for +100 or better.
NBC’s model projects Odorizzi to record 5.5 strikeouts in 5.2 innings pitched against the Rangers. On the season, Odorizzi has only recorded six-plus strikeouts in 3-of-11 starts (27.2%) and 12 games total.
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Odorizzi will have his second meeting against the Rangers this season. In the first, he came in as a relief pitcher and lasted 4.0 innings and 55 pitches.
He allowed two hits, no earned runs and totaled three strikeouts pitching into the 9th versus Texas. Houston went on to win in extra innings, but Odorizzi pitched well following up Lance McCullers Jr., who left because of a sore shoulder.
Odorizzi struck out Adolis Garcia, Joey Gallo and Jason Martin over three innings and none in the 9th of that contest. Texas scored five runs last night and made a late push versus Detroit, falling 7-5.
Gallo struck out three times last night and 10 times over the previous six games and 19 AB, so he will be a free strikeout today along with Brock Holt if he is in the lineup.
Odorizzi has six or fewer AB against the rest of the Rangers’ team, so we have not witnessed a large enough sample size to back the Over.
Houston has lost three of the previous four games he has pitched, and his spin rate and xwOBA have been on the decline during those four, per baseballsavant.com.
Odorizzi’s numbers are not promising, with 22.0 innings pitched in five home starts only reaching 5.0 innings twice.
The Rangers have 44 strikeouts in the past six games to 11 walks. While they are only hitting .151 in that stretch, they faced two of the hottest teams in baseball, the Blue Jays and Tigers.
Houston is hitting .206 in the last week, so not much better than Texas. They opened 3-3 in the first six games in the second half of the schedule, losing Odorizzi’s start 10-1.
Right now, Odorizzi is not pitching well with a 4.11 ERA in July and a .288 OBA versus the Indians, now Guardians, Yankees and White Sox. He lasted 15.1 innings over the three starts and combined for seven strikeouts.
Odorizzi has not recorded six or more strikeouts since June 21st versus Baltimore, five starts ago. He is 2-6 to the Over (25%) in that span and went 5.0 innings or longer in six of them in his past eight starts. Not a great sign for the 31-year-old RHP.
Going against Texas as a starter for the first time this season should be interesting and a slight sweat. I expect somewhere in the neighborhood of 4-5 strikeouts for Odorizzi and 5-6 innings, so play the Under.
Pick: Jake Odorizzi Under 5.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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Yusei Kikuchi O/U 6.5 Strikeouts vs. Athletics
Yusei Kikuchi has had a rough stretch on the mound, hitting his Under 6.5 strikeout mark in seven of the last 10 starts (70%).
NBC’s model predicts Kikuchi to record 6.6 strikeouts in 7.0 innings against Oakland. Over the last six games, Kikuchi has gone Under 6.5 strikeouts in five starts. He hit the Over in his previous start versus the Angels with seven Ks.
Looking over reasons why he has been in a bit of a slump, well, his spin rate and xwOBA are clear indicators. Over his last two starts, Kikuchi’s spin rate is at the lowest of the season for a two-game span.
Per baseballsavant.com, Kikuchi’s xwOBA is at a season-low while his spin rate of 2163 RPM was his second-lowest of the season, improving from his 2082 RPM versus the Yankees two starts ago.
Kikuchi started against Oakland once this season and tossed 88 pitches in 6.0 innings for four hits, three strikeouts, two walks and one earned run. Kikuchi earned the win but went 2-6 to the Under 6.5 strikeouts in his next eight.
The Mariners’ 30-year-old LHP has recorded five or six strikeouts in all six of those Unders, so expect a close call and a sweat with this play as well.
Kikuchi will face a tough K squad as Oakland is striking out 17% of the time to LHP over the last 30 days, the best mark in all of baseball.
Using statmuse, only two of the last 10 starting pitchers went Over 6.5 strikeouts and four of the previous 25 starting LHP.
That is an impressive mark and worth a fade on a pitcher struggling with spin rate issues.
Kikuchi owns a 4.43 ERA at home and 5.31 ERA at night while averaging around one strikeout per inning for both. His OBA numbers are .210 at home and .247 at night, his worst.
Kikuchi has allowed 37 earned runs in 11 night starts over 62.2 innings pitched.
Oakland has struck out 40 times over the last five games and hit .233 in that stretch. This should be a tough battle for both sides, but I like the chances Kikuchi hits five or six strikeouts yet again.
Pick: Yusei Kikuchi Under 6.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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