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Charlie Blackmon to drive in 1+ run
According to NBC’s model, Charlie Blackmon is currently listed at +700 odds to hit one or more home runs and +160 to drive in one or more RBIs. He is projected to hit .34 home runs and drive in 1.13 RBIs.
On the season, Blackmon is slashing .271/.349/.420 with 13 home runs and 71 RBIs. His slugging percentage of .420 is currently tracking to be the lowest since his rookie and sophomore seasons in the big leagues. He may be showing overall signs of decline in his offense this season, however, he has displayed glimmers of his former All-Star self at the plate this week. [[ad:athena]]
In his last three games, Blackmon is 5-for-10 with 8 RBIs and a home run in each game. He has posted at least one RBI in four consecutive games. In addition to his hot streak, his performance is also markedly better at Coors Field as compared to on the road. His batting average and on-base percentage are comparable for his home/away splits but his power is substantially higher at Coors. This season, he has a home slugging percentage of .471 with 11 homers and 47 RBIs. On the road, he owns a slugging percentage of .364 with just two home runs and 24 RBIs.
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Despite the Rox being just 63-73 on the season, 45 of these wins (roughly 71% of their wins) have come at Coors Field. This disparity between home and road performance is far and away the highest margin in MLB. Interestingly enough, the Rockies’ home OPS of .837 is the highest of all teams in MLB whereas their road OPS of .620 places them dead last. They average 5.88 runs per game at home this season, which is also the highest mark in MLB.
Matchup:
Charlie Blackmon and the Rockies are facing off today in Denver against Charlie Morton and the Atlanta Braves. Morton is 12-5 on the season with a 3.52 ERA. He has been pitching well as of late, but he has surrendered three home runs in his last two starts. He consistently pitches five or six innings, so this should give Blackmon a couple of cracks against the unstable Braves bullpen. In Morton’s five career starts at Coors Field, he has surrendered an opponent batting average of .306 and opponent OPS of .867. These numbers are not surprising given the park factors of playing at Coors Field. Batted balls are not the only thing affected by elevation; pitch movement is also drastically affected. Morton has made his curveball his most frequently utilized pitch this season. It will be interesting to see if Morton showcases his curve less today given the diminished pitch movement. Either way, I foresee this benefiting the Rockies hitters today.
Pick: Charlie Blackmon to drive in 1+ run
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