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AL MVP: Shohei Ohtani (-200), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+150)
This is a two-man race that is seeing a margin grow week by week. If you have not bet on Shohei Ohtani to win MVP yet, you are losing time and value.
Now is the last time I would back Ohtani as anything over -200 for what seems to be an obvious pick is too much.
Ohtani has an MVP argument that no other player in the league has by starting as a pitcher and leading the league in home runs (31). He opened at +2000 odds and went as low as +4000 this season, per NBC’s future tool.
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Vladimir Guerrero Jr (+150), of course, is hitting bombs as well, ranking second (28 HR). However, he does not have the pitching factor. Ohtani would need a significant setback post-All-Star Weekend, or Guerrero Jr. will need a dominant second half to gain ground.
Guerrero Jr. ranks top five in most of the major hitting categories. On the season, he is hitting .336 (2nd), has 28 homers (2nd), a 1.113 OPS (1st), 67 runs (2nd), 101 hits (5th) and 71 RBIs (T-1st). Guerrero Jr., like Ohtani, was around +4000 at his lowest point this season and has not seen a significant dip going under +2000 since April 6th.
The Blue Jays have the 11th easiest strength of schedule remaining (.494), while the Angels own the seventh toughest (.512). Guerrero does have that working in his favor and another meeting with the Angels as well.
Toronto hosted Los Angeles for three games this season, and Ohtani did not pitch in any. Vlad played in all three games and recorded two multi-hit performances for six RBIs, five total hits, five walks, two runs scored and one home run.
The two squads play in Los Angeles for four games, with a double-header on August 10th and the series ending on the 12th.
If Ohtani pitches versus Vlad for the first time in his career this season at home -- we could see a shift in odds depending on what happens.
Ohtani is 4-1 with a 3.49 ERA and 87 strikeouts in 67 innings on the pitching side in 13 starts. Ohtani sports a 1.87 ERA and 3-0 record at home in eight starts with a .192 OBA.
The Angels’ superstar leads the league in homers (31) and SLG (.692) while ranking third in RBIs (68), third in OPS (1.054), fourth in triples (4) and 35th with a .276 BA.
Pretty convincing numbers from both players, but the versatility of Ohtani’s pitching and hitting gives him the clear lead, in my opinion. Grab Ohtani at -200 now if you are a believer or wait until the series versus the Blue Jays and hope Vlad (+150) brings his bat once again.
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