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Brad Keller O/U 3.5 Strikeouts vs. BLUE JAYS
We run it back on fading a starting pitcher versus the Blue Jays’ hot offense.
We went Devin Smeltzer and Daniel Lynch back-to-back and now Brad Keller is up next. Keller has now gone Under 3.5 strikeouts in six out of the last seven games, with six outings of 5.0 or more innings, per statmuse.
Keller has four starts versus Toronto and has performances of 4, 3, 5 and 4 strikeouts with three-plus earned runs in three straight games. The current Blue Jays hitters own 50 plate appearances versus Keller for a .286 batting average and a 16 K% (14 hits to eight Ks).
This season, the Royals pitcher has struggled with RISP, permitting a .387 OBA and 1.034 OPS. Keller has given up a .263 BA and .758 OPS with some very low K% when he is going the second time through the order.
We will continue to fade Keller at all costs, especially against an offense that will be challenging to go to 5.0 innings against. I got Keller Under 3.5 Ks at -106 odds. I would play out to -140.
Pick: Brad Keller Under 3.5 Strikeouts (1u)
Cole Irvin O/U 3.5 Strikeouts vs. BRAVES
Cole Irvin has five career appearances versus the Braves for 10.1 innings but never started against Atlanta, so this will be the first.
Irvin has also hit four or fewer strikeouts in 10 straight road games, and this contest will be in Atlanta, per statmuse.
I expect the Braves to put some damage on Irvin, who has allowed six or more runs in four consecutive games. Irvin’s ERA on the road is 5.09 this season and his OBA at .282 with 10 Ks over 17.2 innings.
This season, Irvin owns a career-low 14.8 K% and will face a Braves squad that hits .253 versus LHP (7th) and ranks top four in OPS (.784), OBP (.331) and SLG (.453).
The A’s pitcher has 21 plate appearances against the current Braves hitters and an interesting .588 batting average, .882 SLG and 10 hits, four walks and three strikeouts. Irvin has nine strikeouts over 10.1 innings in his career versus Atlanta in total.
Let’s ride his Under 3.5 strikeouts for -135 odds. I would play to -160.
Pick: Cole Irvin Under 3.5 Strikeouts (1u)
Chris Flexen O/U 3.5 Strikeouts vs. ASTROS
We run it back on Chris Flexen.
Flexen had the best start of his career versus the Astros his last time around, going 7.0 innings for six strikeouts, seven hits, two walks, and one earned run. Seattle won that outing, breaking his terrible stretch against Houston.
However, I don’t think he is free from the Astros lineup, as the books are heavily juicing his Under 3.5 Ks. Rightfully so. Flexen is not a strikeout guy and has plenty of history against the Astros.
The Mariners pitcher is 5-2 to the Under 3.5 Ks against Houston for his career, per statmuse. He is 2-0 to the Under 3.5 Ks at Houston with five walks and three strikeouts over 9.0 innings.
Flexen has a .269 OBA, 14.7 K%, 14.8 whiff % and 32 hits to 19 strikeouts and eight walks over 129 plate appearances versus current Astros. They have plenty of experience and can read his pitches enough to keep him under four strikeouts.
Let’s continue to fade Flexen Under 3.5 Ks (-132) out to -160 for 1 unit. Anything after -145 is 1 unit.
Pick: Chris Flexen Under 3.5 Strikeouts (1.5u)
Keegan Thompson O/U 3.5 STRIKEOUTS VS. ORIOLES
Keegan Thompson will make his third road start of 2022 and fifth of his career as the Cubs take on the Orioles in Baltimore.
Thompson set a career-high on the road with four strikeouts in his previous road trip versus the White Sox. Before that game, Thompson was 3-0 to the Under 3.5 Ks away from home. Seeming that the White Sox play in the same city and are worse striking out against RHP - I will not put too much stock into that.
Per statmuse, Thompson has six strikeouts over 13.0 innings of four starts with seven earned runs and seven walks of his four career road starts. While Baltimore is not the best offense to back, they have been solid against low strikeout pitchers.
The Orioles struck out four times versus Triston McKenzie, three times to Chris Flexen and a combined 19 to Zach Plesac and Shane Bieber over the past four games. Thompson will be the worst pitched they’ve faced in that span.
Let’s take Thompson Under 3.5 Ks (-132) as I don’t see him going back-to-back gamed with four-plus strikeouts on the road.
Pick: Keegan Thompson Under 3.5 Strikeouts (1u)
Jeffrey Springs O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Cardinals
We are back to fading a LHP versus the Cardinals.
Jeffrey Springs makes the start and is coming off six-plus strikeouts in three straight starts, yet his O/U is 4.5 Ks.
Well, that is because LHP versus the Cardinals are 8-3 to the Under 4.5 Ks this season (72.7%), per statmuse. Six of the past seven LHP went Under 4.5 Ks versus St. Louis (85.7%) with Blake Snell luckily hitting six strikeouts.
The Cardinals are hitting .260 over the last seven games (12th) with 57 strikeouts (8.14 Ks per game). Against LHP this season, St. Louis is hitting .274 (2nd) with the fewest total strikeouts and top five ranks in OPB, OPS and SLG.
Let’s fade Springs Under 4.5 Ks at -130 odds out to -160 for 1 unit against the Cardinals, who did not strike out until the top of the 6th inning of their last start versus Justin Steele, another LHP. Anything after -145 is 1 unit.
Pick: Jeffrey Springs Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1.5u)
Carlos Rodón O/U 6.5 Strikeouts vs. ROCKIES
The Rockies are making the trip from Colorado to San Francisco to face Carlos Rodón and the Giants.
Rodon has two career meetings versus the Rockies, and one of those came this season at home, where he had 12 strikeouts over 6.0 innings. The current Rockies hitters own a 38.7 K% and 32.8 whiff % against Rodon with an impressive .288 BA over 62 plate appearances (24 Ks, 17 Hits) per baseball savant.
Rodon has actually stayed Under seven strikeouts in four straight games but hit six Ks in two outings. I believe his prop is appropriately set and the Over is still the right side.
His strikeout numbers are much better at home, posting 1.69 Ks per inning compared to 0.96. The Rockies hitting numbers are much worse on the road compared to at home.
Let’s ride Rodon Over 6.5 Ks for -115 odds out to -150.
Pick: Carlos Rodón Over 6.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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