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Merrill Kelly O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Cardinals
Merrill Kelly has been superb this season, but all good things come to an end.
While the D-Backs pitcher has 22 strikeouts in 21.1 innings, he also owns 20 hits allowed and seven earned walks with four earned runs. All four of the earned runs came in the last two starts at the Nationals and versus the Dodgers.
Kelly’s strikeouts have declined in each start this season, starting from seven and down to four in his previous outing. Kelly only has one road start and that came against the Nationals this season.
The veteran posted a 5.18 ERA on the road last year in 14 starts. He posted a .291 OBA and 0.82 Ks per inning. He went 6.0 innings at Washington and recorded five Ks and six hits allowed for one earned run.
Kelly has not faced the Cardinals since 2019. However, current hitters own a combined .324 OBA versus Kelly with a. 16.7 whiff %, per baseball savant.
While only owning 37 plate appearances against St. Louis, the Cardinals have fared well versus Kelly.
On the season, the Cardinals have allowed only four RHP to hit 5-plus strikeouts out of 14 (71.4%). So, 10 of 14 RHP went Under 4.5 Ks. There have been 19 starting pitchers overall, 13 of them went Under 4.5 Ks (68.4%) versus St. Louis.
When the RHP have gone 5.2 IP or less this season, all 10 have gone Under 4.5 Ks.
Let’s pull for an early exit and Kelly’s road splits to come into play at St. Louis. He is 9-6 to the Under on the road since 2021 (60%) and 6-3 to the Under in the last nine road starts (66.6%).
He only hit 5-plus Ks in back-to-back road starts once last year. I rolled with Kelly Under 4.5 Ks (-158).
I would not play the Under 3.5 Ks.
Pick: Merrill Kelly Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)
Logan Webb O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Nationals
The Nationals have the best batting average (.295) on the road this year, but why is that?
Well, looking at who they have faced so far, per statmuse, I am less than impressed.
Outside of Alex Wood and Max Fried, a lot of these pitchers are mediocre and bottom-rotation guys.
How much can we really compare most Braves and Pirates pitchers to Logan Webb? We can’t.
Webb has been stellar at home since 2021. Last year was his breakout campaign and he recorded five or more strikeouts in 11 out of the last 14 home games (78.5%) as a starter.
Webb posted a 1.96 ERA at home last year and 1.21 ERA through two home starts this season.
Webb lasted 14.0 innings total in his two home starts, both lasting at least 6.0 innings. Webb recorded three and seven strikeouts in those two outings.
He is 9-2 to the Over 4.5 Ks (81.8%) since 2021 when he pitches 6.0 or more innings at home.
Let’s ride Webb Over 4.5 Ks (-128) out to -160. The last five RHP to face the Nationals have hit at least five Ks.
Pick: Logan Webb Over 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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Jose Berrios O/U 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Astros
Let’s keep fading Jose Berrios.
He has hit the six strikeouts or more once this season (Boston) while pitching better each start. However, the previous two starts both came versus the Red Sox and shaky showings versus the Yankees and Rangers came before that.
Berrios is not out of the clear yet and Houston should provide some troubles for the 27-year-old RHP. Berrios has 15 strikeouts in 18.1 innings of work with 22 hits, 10 earned runs and seven walks.
Berros owns 84 plate appearances versus current Houston hitters with a .280 OBA and 15.7 whiff %, per baseball savant.
Houston has been a tough team to sit down at times. Eight out of 11 starting RHP went Under 5.5 Ks versus Houston this season (72.7%) and 16 out of 20 starting pitchers went Under 5.5 Ks against the Astros (80%).
Berrios is 4-2 to the Under 5.5 Ks against Houston in his career -- all as a member of the Twins. Berrios had eight strikeouts in last season’s meeting but that came in Minnesota where he was pitching quite well.
He is struggling versus LHB this season (.354 OBA and 1.049 OPS) and Houston has plenty of LHB to toss in the lineup today.
Everyone is also betting Toronto today because the Blue Jays have yet to lose back-to-back games this year or when Berrios has pitched, well that should change shortly, if not this start.
I grabbed Berrios Under 5.5 Ks for -115 odds and would play this out to -150.
Pick: Jose Berrios Under 5.5 Strikeouts (1u)
Jose Suarez O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. White Sox
Fading a LHP versus the White Sox? What are we doing? Trying to get rich is all.
Over the last two years, Chicago has been dominant against LHP and that has continued this season. Chicago has faced four LHP and three of them went Under 4.5 Ks with Daniel Lynch being the only Over, per statmuse.
Jose Suarez is in for a tough matchup.
The White Sox are hitting .258 versus LHP (6th) and 31 strikeouts to 11 walks in 12 games (120 at-bats). Only the Blue Jays and Royals have fewer strikeouts versus LHP this season.
Suarez will also make his second road start of the season. He struggled in 4.1 innings versus the Rangers in his only road start this year. He made it 59 pitches and allowed five hits and three earned runs with three strikeouts and three walks.
Suarez has 11 strikeouts to nine walks over 13.0 innings (three starts) this season. Asking him to take on talented White Sox lineup in Chicago should be a difficult test for a guy that is 4-4 (50%) to the 4.5 line on the road since 2021.
I played Suarez Under 4.5 Ks at -128 odds and would play this out to -160. There could be a delay or rain out, so this play may get pushed until tomorrow.
Pick: Jose Suarez Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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