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Jameson Taillon O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Blue Jays
Jameson Taillon draws his first start of the season and he gets the worst possible draw - The Toronto Blue Jays.
Taillon had two Spring Training appearances and didn’t show much. He pitched 2.0 innings for one strikeout and one hit allowed in the first, then 3.2 innings with four hits, three earned runs (one HR), and one walk to four strikeouts.
If this outing is anything like the previous spring game, then Taillon is in for a short night.
In his four career starts against Toronto, Taillon has tossed 19.0 innings with 17 strikeouts to five walks. Taillon recorded two, five, three and seven strikeouts in those four meetings, with his seven-game game coming as a Pirate in 2017, per statmuse.
Last season, Taillon threw his four-seam fastball 49.5% of the time, which will not fly versus the Blue Jays. In two of his three starts against Toronto last season, Taillon lasted 2.1 and 3.2 innings with five total strikeouts.
Toronto’s bats have been chomping at the bit this season and I expect a rough first start for New York’s 30-year-old RHP.
I played the Under 4.5 strikeouts at -120 odds and would play it out to -150.
Pick: Jameson Taillon Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)
Taijuan Walker O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Phillies
I love this matchup. Taijuan Walker started five times against the Phillies last season, so they know him pretty well.
The Mets pitcher went 26.1 innings and allowed 20 hits and 11 ER with a 3.76 ERA, .211 OBA and 21 strikeouts to six walks.
The 29-year-old pitcher went for eight strikeouts in the first meeting but then regressed to four, five, one and three Ks over the next four matchups per statmuse.
In his two career trips to Citizen Banks Park as a Met, Walker went 6.0 innings both times and recorded one and four strikeouts, so the Under both times. I don’t think he surpasses 5.0 innings today.
Walker also had substantial home and away splits last year.
At home: 0.96 Ks per inning, .198 OBA and a .3.46 ERA
On the road: 0.85 Ks per inning, .258 OBA and a 5.82 ERA
All of that, plus in Walker’s last Spring Training start, he allowed six hits and six earned runs in 1.1 innings of work. Two of those six runs were homers. He pitched 7.0 total innings over three appearances with two strikeouts.
Fade Walker on the road against this Phillies lineup that was hot until yesterday’s cool temperatures slowed their bats down. Philly went out with a B-Squad lineup yesterday as well. That should not be the case today.
I played Walker Under 4.5 strikeouts at -130 and would play to -150 odds.
Pick: Taijuan Walker Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)
Austin Gomber O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Rangers
I keep harping on Spring Training, but Austin Gomber had a rough outing in the previous after a shaky showing in the first. Gomber pitched 7.0 innings in two appearances and had seven strikeouts to three walks.
However, the Rockies pitcher gave up four homers in two games, including three in the previous appearance.
Over that previous game, Gomber gave up six hits and three solo homers over 4.0 innings of work with four strikeouts and two walks. Not ideal.
Gomber was a completely different pitcher at home than on the road last season, as you would assume pitching at Coors Field.
At home: 2.09 ERA, .187 OBA and 31 hits in 47.1 innings (9 starts)
On the road: 6.22 ERA, .259 OBA and 71 hits in 68.0 innings (14 starts)
Away from Colorado, Gomber was 4-8 in those 14 starts and averaged 4.3 strikeouts with 5.0 or fewer innings pitched. That is what we are hoping for here today, especially after Texas’ scoring outburst against Toronto yesterday.
Gomber has only faced six of the Rangers’ hitters for 14 at-bats, but there are six walks to four strikeouts, so they have worked the LHP in the limited time. Hyun Jin Ryu was an LHP yesterday, and the Rangers got to him.
Let’s see if they can do it again. I played Gomber Under 4.5 strikeouts at -120 odds and would play him to -150.
Pick: Austin Gomber Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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