Vaughn Dalzell shares his best bet in the Dodgers and Phillies series opener.
Dodgers (-115) at Phillies (-105): O/U 9.5
In the last five games, the Dodgers are 1-4 while the Phillies are 5-0 and have been described as “red-hot.”
However, Philly should have lost yesterday against the Tigers. Detroit was after being no-hit through seven innings by Zack Wheeler, then tied the game in the eighth inning and took the lead in the ninth inning.
This Phillies bullpen is an issue and them being underdogs at home on a five-game winning streak is telling, especially since the Dodgers lost two of three to the Reds and Yankees.
Ranger Suárez will start for Philly, a LHP. The Dodgers own the fifth-worst batting average against LHP this season (.233) but also sports the third-most walks (74) and leads the league in home runs (36).
Suarez is making his sixth start of the year and this will by far be the best offense he’s faced. Los Angles is hitting .256 to start June (T-11th) with 32 runs (T-9th) and 11 homers (T-6th), plus the third-fewest strikeouts (41).
In Suarez’s career against Dodgers’ hitters, he owns a .273 BA on 62 plate appearances. He’s allowed at least five hits in every start and two or more earned runs in four of five this season.
Suarez’s prop of O/U 5.5 hits is a strong lean to the Over for -125 odds, but I will take the Dodgers ML at -115 odds out to -130.
I think the Dodgers can get a road win here and they’ve won five of the last eight series openers compared to the Phillies who are 1-6 in the past seven series openers.
There are promos that can get this to +130 or an early payout with a two-run lead, so look around if you like the Dodgers too.
Pick: Dodgers ML (1u)
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