Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how he’s betting the Tuesday slate, including Guardians vs Athletics, Reds vs Rockies and Gerrit Cole‘s strikeout prop.
Gerrit Cole O/U 7.5 Strikeouts vs. Mariners
Seattle has 48 strikeouts over the past four games with a .194 BA and will take on Gerrit Cole.
On the road, Seattle is hitting .231 with 326 strikeouts in 1,101 at-bats (29.6 K%). That is not ideal for the Mariners and Cole owns 138 plate appearances against current Mariners’ hitters and owns a 27.6 K% and 30% whiff%.
Mariners’ like Kolten Wong (.194), AJ Pollock (.154), Jarred Kelenic (.200), Teoscar Hernandez (.217) and Eugenio Suarez (.250) have all struggled against Cole in their careers. Three of those five hitters own a K% of 33 or higher against Cole and four of them own whiff% of 30% or more.
Over the last 11 games, six different Mariners have struck out 10 or more times. Cole should be able to rack up eight or more strikeouts at home. Cole struck out eight in his previous start and pitched 6.0 innings in four-consecutive starts.
The Yankees’ ace owns a .200 OBA at home along with a 2.78 ERA over nine starts (4-1 record). Cole’s 1.21 Ks per inning at home is better than his road splits (0.99 Ks per inning) and he allows fewer hits per inning at home (0.7) compared to the road (0.94).
I played Cole Over 7.5 Ks at -135 odds and would go Over 8.5 Ks for a half-unit at +125 or better.
Pick: Gerrit Cole Over 7.5 Strikeouts (Risk 1u)
Rockies (+145) at Reds(-170): O/U 10.0
I am going to run it back on the white-hot Reds as they’ve won nine-straight games, including yesterday’s series opener against the Rockies.
Neither Ben Lively or Noah Davis have much experience against either teams current hitters, but both teams hit RHP well. The difference is the Rockies on the road are a bottom-five offense and has the most strikeouts in the league over the last seven days (66 Ks in six games) with 19 runs scored (20th).
The Reds price has been on the move but they have much better numbers over the past week and with nine wins in the past 10 games, Cincy is in first-place of the NL Central.
A road Rockies team is a good opponent to keep their streak alive. I played the Reds on the ML at -170 and wouldn’t say no to the -1.5 for +100 or better.
Pick: Reds ML (Risk 1u)
Athletics (+200) at Guardians (-230): O/U 9.0
Luis Medina takes the mound for Oakland and will make his seventh start on the year as he hosts the Guardians.
In 39.1 innings of work, Medina’s allowed 33 earned runs with 10 homers on 45 total hits. Medina’s permitted three or more earned runs in seven out of eight games pitched.
In the past week, Cleveland is hitting .282 over the last five games (4th) with 32 strikeouts (best) and 24 runs scored (13th). Medina hasn’t allowed a homer in his past three starts and Cleveland has the fewest homers against RHP this year (32), so the Guardians will have to go yard once or twice, but I like the chances.
Aaron Civale should and could have his best start of the season based on talent-level after pitching against the Mariners twice, Red Sox, Twins and Padres. While sporting a 4.76 home ERA compared to 1.15 road ERA, I like the chances Civale keeps Oakland to a few runs or less.
I played the Guardians -1.5 at -115 odds and would go to -125. I lean Oakland Under 3.5 or Under 3.0 runs scored.
Pick: Guardians -1.5 (1u)
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