Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his favorite plays on the slate, including José Berríos and Austin Gomber‘s strikeout props.
Austin Gomber O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Reds
Austin Gomber makes another road start and this time it’s against the Reds who have won eight-straight games, all coming on the road.
In three June starts (0-2), Gomber owns a 8.53 ERA and .390 OBA along with 23 hits, 10 strikeouts and 10 walks over 12.2 innings.
Gomber is arguably pitching his worst stretch of the season and ranks 6th in chase rate, 7th percentile for K% and 12th percentile for whiff%, per baseball savant.
Six out of 10 LHP hit four or fewer strikeouts as the starting road pitcher against the Reds this season. Four of the previous five LHP overall hit five or more strikeouts against the Reds, but those were Jordan Montgomery, Clayton Kershaw, Chris Sale and James Paxton -- four guys who rank much higher than Gomber in strikeouts.
On 27 plate appearances against current Cincy hitters, Gomber has only one strikeout compared to eight hits allowed and three walks. I played Gomber Under 4.5 Ks at -150 odds and the Reds ML at -155. I’d go to -165 on both.
Colorado is 13-26 on the road and ranks 26th or worst in OPS, OBP and SLG away from Coors Field.
Pick: Austin Gomber Under 4.5 Strikeouts (Risk 1u), Reds ML (Risk 1u)
José Berríos O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Marlins
José Berríos didn’t record his first strikeout until the 5th inning in his previous start, but finished with five strikeouts to hit his Over against Baltimore, needing three strikeouts in the bottom of the 6th and another in the bottom of the 8th.
Berrios is 7-2 to the Over 4.5 Ks on the road this season (77.7%) and 5-0 to the Over in the past five road starts, but owns a 12.9 K% over 62 plate appearances against current Miami hitters.
There have been seven staring RHP to visit Miami in June and all seven recorded three or less strikeouts. In nine road starts, Berrios has a .246 OBA and 3.79 ERA, which are worse than his home splits, so I like the Under 4.5 Ks.
It’s also worth noting that Berrios has a strong trend after pitching 6.0 innings in his previous start. Berrios is 16-2 at home (88.8%) after going 6.0 or more innings with Toronto compared to 6-7 on the road (46.1%).
I grabbed Berrios Under 4.5 Ks at +100 odds and would go out to -120. I sprinkled the Marlins +1.5 at -125 odds.
Pick: José Berríos Under 4.5 Strikeouts (Risk 1u), Marlins +1.5 (Risk 1u)
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