Vaughn Dalzell breaks down who he believes will advance in the ALCS and NLCS between the Phillies vs Diamondbacks and Astros vs Rangers.
Arizona Diamondbacks (+145) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-170)
Arizona has scored at least four runs in every postseason game and had an inning of three or more runs in all five playoff games. That type of offense can flatten an opponent and that’s what the Phillies will be looking to match or avoid.
Philly can match Arizona’s offense as seven different Phillies hit 15-plus homers this year, so the DBacks will need to keep that explosiveness. The two teams met seven times in Philly during the regular season and the Phillies took the season series 4-3.
Entering the year, Philadelphia was a title contender, while Arizona, was not so much. The Diamondbacks came into the year at +125000 odds to win the World Series at BetMGM, which was the 8th-worst odds to win it all (0.79%).
Only three teams, the 1991 Twins (+8000), 2003 Marlins (+7500), and 1987 Twins (+5000) won the World Series at 50-to-1 (+5000) or longer, so the odds are against the DBacks.
The odds are against the Diamondbacks and history says the Phillies advance. I agree with that and coming into this postseason, I mentioned multiple times the Phillies had the best odds for the World Series title at +1400.
Of course, I love the path now that they knocked out my World Series pick, Atlanta. Give me the Phillies to win the ALCS and win the World Series. I have a bet on the National League (-115) to win the World Series, so I will be rooting for whoever, but I would like to see Philly advance here.
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -170
Texas Rangers (+120) vs. Houston Astros (-140)
The ALCS is a battle for Texas between the Rangers and Astros, which couldn’t be more exciting.
Houston has only won 51.7% of its games as a favorite and they were the only team entering the postseason with a losing record at home during the regular season (39-42).
Entering the ALCS, Houston’s pitching staff is generating an MLB-best 13 strikeouts per game, which no one saw coming. On the other hand, Texas ranks first in runs, second in batting average, and third in OPS during the postseason with a 5-0 record, so whatever ain’t broke, don’t try and fix it because it worked during the regular season too.
Houston went 9-4 against Texas this season, so I was surprised to see the Astros aren’t larger favorites, along with this being the seventh-straight ALCS appearance for Houston. That is telling and the Rangers opened as +120 underdogs and were bet down to -105 against the Orioles in the previous round, and advanced with a sweep.
Texas is a team that exceeded expectations of regression all season and after winning the last round and putting together a 9-1 ATS streak with seven straight-up wins over the last 10 games, give me the Rangers for plus-money to advance to the World Series.
Pick: Texas Rangers +120
A Hitter from each team to watch:
Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros
Alvarez is heating up. The Astros’ DH recorded at least one hit in eight straight games entering this ALCS. Over the past 10 games, Alvarez is hitting .333 with six homers, four walks, three doubles, and eight RBIs. Alvarez’s best bets are Overs on homers, RBIs, or Hits + RBIs + Runs for the ALCS.
Corey Seager, Texas Rangers
Seagar is batting .429 with an OPS of 1.537, which only trails Alvarez (1.784) in the postseason. The Rangers’ shortstop is dialed in at the plate with 11 walks to two strikeouts, plus six hits, six runs scored and three doubles with one homer. Seager’s walks prop and Hits + RBIs + Runs will be good looks in the ALCS.
Trea Turner, Philadelphia Phillies
Turner has 10 straight games with at least one hit. During his last 10 games, he is hitting .462 with seven doubles, two home runs, two walks, and three RBI. The Phillies’ shortstop has also stolen four bases and 12 hits, which leads the postseason. Turner’s stolen bases and Hits + RBIs + Runs are the looks for the ALCS.
Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks
Carroll is third in walks (6), second in stolen bases (2), and top 11 in BA (.412), OBP (.565), SLG (.824), and OPS (1.389) during the playoffs. The rookie outfielder added two homers and four RBIs to his first career postseason, so take a look at Carroll’s Hits + RBIs + Runs and walks props.
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