Trainer Todd Pletcher knows a thing or two about what it takes to win a race like the Kentucky Derby, having prevailed in 2010 with Super Saver and again in 2017 with Always Dreaming.
Following Known Agenda’s extremely disappointing performance in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs, Pletcher decided to equip the colt with blinkers for his next start at Gulfstream Park just 20 days later. The blinkers did the trick, propelling the son of Curlin to an 11-length victory against inferior company. Despite not registering as a particularly fast race when it came to speed figures, the effort was visually impressive – impressive enough for Pletcher to throw him into the deep end, entering him in the Grade 1 Florida Derby.
On Saturday, Known Agenda punched his ticket to the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville, winning the Florida Derby by nearly three-lengths as the 5/1 third choice in the wagering. Beneath jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr., Known Agenda raced much more professionally throughout the mile-and-one-eighth journey at Gulfstream Park, angling to the clear as the field turned for home before running away from his competition impressively.
In victory, the three-year-old colt earned a new career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 94, a speed figure which, while still slower than some of the major Kentucky Derby contenders, puts him in with a puncher’s chance the first Saturday in May. If nothing else, Pletcher’s decision to equip his horse with blinkers has proven to be the correct call; perhaps the decision will be looked back at as the move that sent Known Agenda down the path toward Kentucky Derby glory.
Below are some observations to consider following the 2021 Florida Derby:
- As mentioned earlier, the 94 Beyer Speed Figure earned by Known Agenda on Saturday puts him in the thick of things as far as Derby contenders are concerned, however he still lags behind some of the other major contenders in that regard. Horses like Essential Quality (career-best Beyer of 96), Hot Rod Charlie (99), Medina Spirit (95) and others have all eclipsed Known Agenda’s fastest race to date. This is not to mention the horses who still have their final Kentucky Derby prep races ahead of them and project to improve, such as Concert Tour, Risk Taking and Prevalence.
- Soup and Sandwich was mentioned in the Florida Derby preview as a longshot who possesses an abundance of talent but may not yet have the experience necessary to succeed at this level. Both sentiments appear to have been confirmed, as the grey colt ran an admirable race to finish second, despite never changing leads down the lane. Soup and Sandwich appears to be a horse that is every bit as talented as Known Agenda or anyone else he faced on Saturday, but he may need more seasoning before he fulfills his potential. Nevertheless, he has likely earned himself a spot in the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby.
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- Greatest Honour was defeated as the 4/5 post time favorite Saturday, and despite rallying late in the game, overall, the performance was underwhelming. After racing toward the rear of the field early, jockey Jose Ortiz encouraged Greatest Honour to improve his position rounding the far turn. It was not until the colt was able to angle to the clear from behind runners, that he began to find his stride, but it was far too late at that point. One of the great fears for three-year-olds at this stage of the season is that they have run so frequently that they may need a freshening. Greatest Honour has raced and trained consistently since late July of last year, and with the speed figure regression seen in Saturday’s Florida Derby (89 Beyer Speed Figures in his two prior starts, 85 Beyer in Saturday’s Florida Derby), it is fair to wonder if his form is beginning to tail off and he may need a break before we see his best again.
- Collaborate endured a wide trip throughout in his first try against winners, going two-turns, but that is far from the reason he did not fire. Perhaps it was all the “firsts” he was forced to deal with, or it was simply the hike in class facing stakes-caliber horses. Whatever the reasoning, Collaborate failed this test despite appearing to have a tactical edge on paper. It will be interesting to see what trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. and company decide to do with this highly thought of colt going forward.
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- Spielberg represented trainer Bob Baffert’s first starter ever in the Florida Derby, and while the eighth-place finish looks dreadful on paper, it should be noted he traveled impossibly wide throughout Saturday’s race. By no means does he have the look or feel of a legitimate Kentucky Derby contender, but he is likely better than he showed Saturday. If you liked Spielberg coming into the Florida Derby, you should be willing to give him a mulligan based on the trip he endured at Gulfstream.
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