NBC Sports’ coverage of the Road to the Kentucky Derby continues today with one of the biggest preps of the year - the Florida Derby.
The road from Hallandale Beach to Louisville has been a fruitful one in recent years. Since 2000, six Kentucky Derby winners have run in the Florida Derby, the most of any major Derby prep.
That bodes well for Forte, who will be a strong favorite in the Run for the Roses should he take care of business on Saturday.
But more on that in just a bit. Let’s dive into the first race in our window, the Appleton:
APPLETON STAKES
GULFSTREAM PARK, RACE 13, POST TIME 6:06PM ET
Let’s start with #6 Steady On, the tepid morning-line favorite at 3-1. He’s the most likely winner of this race – he’s got a versatile running style that gives jockey Irad Ortiz options, and he lost by less than a length to Emmanuel last time out – that rival is likely to step up into Grade 1 competition in his next start and is far more talented than any horse entered here. I just don’t want to bet the favorite in a turf race with a full field – there’s always the possibility of traffic trouble, and while Irad Ortiz is the best jockey in the country, I want to place a win bet on a horse that gives me a little more bang for my buck – and that’s #3 Gray’s Fable.
This 8-year-old returned from a long layoff last time out and ran well, finishing 2nd behind Souper Dormy (who is also entered in this race). But the results on paper don’t tell the whole story. Gray’s Fable was clearly the best horse in that race – he got stuck in traffic on the rail, unable to fully extend himself until it was too late. Meanwhile, the winner of that race, Souper Dormy, got a clear path on the outside and was able to be fully extended throughout the entire stretch run. Gray’s Fable, who won this race in 2021, should improve in his 2nd start off the layoff, and his off-the-pace running style should work well in a race loaded with early speed. I’m just hoping jockey Joel Rosario – who, admittedly, has not had a good meet – can get him in the clear earlier than he did last time out.
I’m also going to play a straight exacta, with Steady On keyed up top.
THE PLAY:
WIN: #3 Gray’s Fable, at 8-1 or higher
EXACTA: 6 over 3
FLORIDA DERBY
GULFSTREAM PARK, RACE 14, POST TIME 6:40PM ET
The headliner here is the 4/5 morning line favorite, #11 Forte. He towers over this field on paper, and is very likely to win, but a win bet on him doesn’t provide much value. It can be tough to find value in a race that features a seemingly overwhelming favorite, but one way to do it is to key the favorite in the “one-hole” in exotic wagers and use a longshot underneath. So that’s what I’m going to do here.
When looking for a longshot, I wanted a horse who will thrive at this 1 1/8 mile distance, as well as a horse that also has 2 turn experience at this track. A horse that ticks those boxes is…#1 Jungfrau. Yes, he finished next-to-last in the Withers Stakes last time out, but he had a legitimate excuse as he almost ran into the back of another horse entering the first turn and lost most of his momentum. His only career win came at Gulfstream, and his pedigree indicates that he should have absolutely no problem with this race’s distance. Now, Jungfrau has shown some mental immaturity in his past races, and I usually avoid betting those kinds of horses, especially in graded stakes. But Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott doesn’t enter horses in graded stakes unless he thinks they have a shot – and don’t forget, he finished 2nd in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream in February with the longshot Shadow Dragon. If Jungfrau’s on his best behavior on Saturday, I think he’s got a great shot to finish in the top-3 and trigger some nice exotics payoffs.
I’m going to play him underneath Forte in the “two-hole,” and underneath Forte and other logical contenders in the “three-hole.”
THE PLAY:
EXACTA: 11 OVER 1
TRIFECTA 11 / 4,10,12 / 1
Enjoy the races on Saturday!
