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Round 1 of the Zurich Classic is set to tee off in a little over 24 hours. An unorthodox week on the PGA Tour, only 80 teams are at our disposal for first-round selections and because of this, our strategy shifts from the longshots to mid-range selections.
Team golf is vastly different from your standard stroke-play event as we have seen partnerships such as Harris English and Matt Kuchar dominate the QBE Shootout throughout the years. Both don’t do anything too flashy and have the tendency to run hot on the greens.
Not only that, but they also know each other’s games, which is impossible to attach a metric to, but vastly important. This makes a ton of sense when looking at Scott Brown and Kevin Kisner’s history at the Zurich Classic as they boast finishes of runner-up, T-15, and T-5 before they surprisingly missed the cut last year.
Familiarity and the art of ham-and-egging are two intangibles needed for our Thursday selections. Factor these in together with a strong tee-to-green presence, birdie-making abilities, and the potential to catch fire with the putter and we should be in a good spot for the first-round.
Our friends at PointsBet Sportsbook have priced the first-round leader market ahead of the Zurich Classic. To no surprise, Viktor Hovland and Collin Morikawa lead the way at +1600. Hovland and his teammate shared first-round honors last year with a 10-under 62, a score which sets a nice bar for our selections.
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To Lead After Round 1 (Odds Via PointsBet):
+1600: Viktor Hovland/Collin Morikawa
+1800: Patrick Cantlay/Xander Schauffele, Marc Leishman/Cameron Smith, Ryan Palmer/Scottie Scheffler
+2000: Sam Burns/Billy Horschel
+2200: Tommy Fleetwood/Sergio Garcia
+2800: Shane Lowry/Ian Poulter
+3000: Joaquin Niemann/Mito Pereira, Talor Gooch/Max Homa
+3500: Harold Varner III/Bubba Watson, Tyrrell Hatton/Danny Willett, Byeong Hun An/Sungjae Im, Keegan Bradley/Brendan Steele
+4000: Davis Riley/Will Zalatoris, Chris Kirk/Brendon Todd, Patton Kizzire/J.T. Poston, Graeme McDowell/ Seamus Power
To Lead After Round 1:
Brandt Snedeker/Keith Mitchell +5500 at DraftKings (0.36 units):
There is not a ton of buzz around this team, but that only proves what a couple weeks can do to the human brain. Most have forgotten about Snedeker’s tee-to-green performance at TPC San Antonio, where he led the field is said category and posted rounds of 73-66-67-75.
The up-and-down nature of these rounds is a welcomed sight as steady play won’t get the job done in Round 1 best-ball. Blend this with Snedeker’s wedge play, which still ranks inside the top-20 in this field, and he should conceivably give himself plenty of birdie opportunities.
Snedeker is the one I am worried about, but if he carries his weight, Mitchell has the freedom to let the big dog eat. Consistently ranking near the top of events in SG: Off-the-Tee, the Georgia Bulldog was impressive in last year’s Zurich Classic as he golfed his own ball the best of anyone. He frequently takes advantage of par-5s and is proficient from 200+ yards, leading me to believe this duo will improve on their best-ball scores of 66-64 in 2021.
Joseph Bramlett/Maverick McNealy +6000 at DraftKings (0.33 units):
The first time around did not go smoothly for the former Stanford Cardinals as they struggled in Round 1 and signed for a 3-under 69. Getting behind the eight-ball immediately, they were unable to overcome this deficit in alternate shot and were ultimately sent home early.
They arrive in much better form as Bramlett has connected on 4-of-6 cuts and McNealy has made his way to the weekend in 13 straight starts. Ball-striking wise, the pair are fantastic as Bramlett has jaw-dropping length and daft touch from 100-125 yards.
McNealy also has the ability to pop on the greens and ranks inside the top-10 in Birdies or Better and par-5 scoring over the last three months in this field. While they both struggle in the short-game department, I am hopeful this area of the game will not be needed in the best-ball format.
Adam Schenk/Tyler Duncan +9000 at PointsBet (0.22 units):
We have touched on the SEC and the PAC-12, so it is only fitting we round out our first-round selections with the BIG-10. Steering clear of first-time pairs, Schenk and Duncan have sneakily been one of the better duos in the short history of the team version of the Zurich Classic.
Playing three previous times, the two have captured finishes of T-7 and T-11. The latter came in 2021 when they signed for rounds of 64-63 in the best-ball format. They should have a realistic opportunity to improve on those efforts as Schenk has been extremely volatile in 2022, commanding the 36-hole lead at the Farmers Insurance Open and the Corales Punta Cana Championship while missing cuts on a regular basis.
The steady hand in this group is Duncan who is coming off a T-12 finish at the RBC Heritage. Routinely gaining strokes off-the-tee by way of his accuracy, he has now collected four top-35 efforts in his last five tournaments. He completed his week in Hilton Head with a 6-under 65, so it would not be surprising to see this team in the low-60s on Thursday.
Round Leaders YTD: -8.70 units, -60.36%
Total YTD: +40.74 units, +35.73%
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