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The race for the FedEx Cup Playoffs is officially underway in Greensboro, North Carolina. With temperatures in the 90’s and the heat index reaching triple-digits, players attempted to get their Wyndham Championship off on the right foot and solidify their status on the PGA Tour. While play was delayed and later suspended due to darkness, one player was able to separate himself from the pack going into day two.
Securely inside the top-125, it was Russell Henley who got off to a scorching start on Thursday. Ranking 46th in the season long race, the former Georgia Bulldog played without the pressure that so many of counterparts are dealing with. Likely in the field till at least the BMW Championship, where the top-70 players gain entry, Henley fired a first-round score of 8-under 62.
Known for his ball-striking, the three-time winner on the PGA Tour found his putting stroke in Round 1. Carding six birdies and an eagle, Henley posted +2.42: Strokes Gained: Putting to go along with his exquisite tee-to-green play.
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Henley leads a cluster of players who sit at six-under, including the likes of Michael Thompson and Sung Kang, who despite sitting outside the top-125 in the FedEx Cup standings, are exempt thru the 2021-2022 season. One man alongside them who isn’t as lucky is Ted Potter, Jr. who is in need of at least a top-two finish to secure his status for next year as he is currently 181st in the standings.
While there are a number of big names sitting on the playoff bubble such as Adam Scott, Matt Kuchar, Rickie Fowler, and Justin Rose, none are in the same boat as Potter. That is except for Tommy Fleetwood. The Englishman came into the week 136th in the standings and requires an 11th-place finish to climb into the top-125.
Combined with his official world golf ranking, Fleetwood will likely garner enough starts next season here and abroad to fill out a full work schedule. However, I am sure he doesn’t want it to come to that as he opened his Wyndham Championship with a four-under 66, putting him in a tie for 19th for the time being.
The oddsmakers at PointsBet Sportsbook have Henley at +450 and the new favorite heading into the second day of the Wyndham Championship. The pre-tournament favorite, Webb Simpson, is close behind at +600. Despite starting his round with a double-bogey, the 2011 champion bounced back for a round of five-under 65 to sit three-strokes behind Henley.
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Updated Odds to Win (Odds Via PointsBet):
+450: Russell Henley
+600: Webb Simpson
+2200: Chris Kirk, Sungjae Im, Kevin Kisner
+2500: Jhonattan Vegas
+2800: Adam Hadwin, Michael Thompson
+3000: Kevin Streelman
+3300: Erik van Rooyen
+4000: Si Woo Kim, Tommy Fleetwood
+4500: Adam Scott, Brian Stuard, Justin Rose
+5000: Branden Grace, Brian Harman, Scott Piercy, Sebastian Munoz
Round 2 Plays (Odds Via PointsBet):
Chesson Hadley (+223) vs. Kramer Hickok and Sepp Straka
Sticking with our process of selecting long shot three-balls, Hadley will be a player that we’ll be targeting on Friday as he struck the ball well enough on Thursday. Posting +1.98 SG: Approach in Round 1, the 2014 Rookie of the Year carded a round of two-under 68.
While he wasn’t able to get the better of Straka who shot four-under, he did beat Hickok by a stroke. Straka got off to a sluggish start, as he was even-par through his first 12 holes. Going four-under in a four-hole stretch, Straka gained nearly three-strokes on the greens en route to his round of 66.
Notoriously a weakness, I expect some regression in that department which could lead to a poor second round for Straka as the ball-striking was not up to par in Round 1. The same rings true for Hickok when it comes to ball-striking, leaving the door open for Hadley. If he can make just slight improvements in the other tee-to-green areas, then Hadley should have a realistic chance to take care of business in Round 2.
Francesco Molinari (+10000 to win):
I am never one to add an outright after the first-round, but I believe Molinari warrants consideration. Sitting at three-under for the tournament, the Italian is in a tie for 40th and only five-strokes behind Henley.
It was an up-and-down day for the 2018 Open champion as he carded six birdies against three bogeys in his first-round. Effectively taking advantage of both of the par-5’s, Molinari struggled on the difficult par-3’s, playing them in two-over.
However, those weren’t the only strokes he left on the golf course as Molinari failed to convert seven birdie opportunities from inside of 20 feet as well as an eagle look on the par-5 15th. Couple that with two three-putts, and it’s easy to see why Molinari ranks 135th in the field in SG: Putting having lost –1.83 strokes with the flat stick.
Ranking sixth in SG: Tee-to-Green, Molinari utilized a rather balanced line of attack, gaining +0.40 SG: Off-the-Tee, +1.55 SG: Approach, and +1.22 SG: Around-the-Green. Long-term, he’s been competent on Bermuda putting surfaces, so I have confidence that if he continues to give himself birdie opportunities that he’ll be able to convert them as the week progresses.
Not only will I be leaning on Molinari in the outright market, but also in a Round 2 three-ball. At +167, I like him to continue his strong play and get the better of Lanto Griffin and Keith Mitchell.
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