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This week’s draw has nothing to do with the weather as players are pooled together in groups of four. While some may have a difficult time advancing out of the round-robin portion of the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, others have been granted the luxury of being placed in an advantageous position from the word go.
Avoiding numerous “groups of death” such as Group 6 which features Justin Thomas, Kevin Kisner, Marc Leishman, and Luke List, we will instead target those which are less intimidating. Whether conducive for a favorite or an underdog, here are four group winners we will be investing in courtesy of PointsBet Sportsbook.
Group 2 Winner: Sergio Garcia +250 (0.50 units):
Garcia was arguably the best player in the field last season before a shocking 4&3 exit to Victor Perez in the Quarterfinals. Possessing a career WGC Match Play record of 28-22-1, the all-time points leader in Ryder Cup history has not skipped a beat in his new home of Austin, Texas.
12-7-1 on this Pete Dye design alone, there are many factors in El Niño’s favor from not only his form and history, but also that of his counterparts. Namely Collin Morikawa‘s whose iron play has not been up to his standards in 2022 and appears susceptible to an upset given this and his balky short game.
Leaving Garcia to deal with pair of power players in Jason Kokrak and Robert MacIntyre, I will take my chances with the 42-year-old. Finding some touch on the greens in recent memory, the flat stick will be the determining factor in this group.
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Group 7 Winner: Xander Schauffele +175 (1.00 unit):
The lone favorite to make his way into our selections, it is reasonable to suggest Schauffele received the most favorable draw of any Pool A player. Faced with the task of dismantling Tony Finau, Lucas Herbert, and Takumi Kanaya, the Olympic Gold Medalist should be licking his chops.
Schauffele arrives with his game very much under the radar as he has connected on four straight top-20 finishes when not including The PLAYERS Championship. Consistently gaining strokes on the field in every aspect of his game, the 28-year-old should continue to thrive in this format.
Boasting a career WGC Match Play record of 4-2-3, the world No. 9 narrowly missed out advancing from his group last season when he lost in a 2-hole playoff to eventual runner-up Scottie Scheffler. With no other player possessing such quality, I envision Schauffele making quick work of his group before facing a stern test in the Round of 16.
Group 9 Winner: Talor Gooch +225 (0.50 units):
There is one big question mark in this group and his name is Bryson DeChambeau. Is he fully healthy? How much has he been playing? What is the status of his game? Richard Bland will be the first to find out as he is set to face him on Wednesday and it is conceivable the 49-year-old gives the big hitting American a fair shot and potentially mirrors Antoine Rozner’s result from 2021.
Yet when given the option of an injured golfer, two elder Englishmen, and a player amid a career year, this selection does in fact become rather bland as Gooch possesses a subtle volatility to his game ideal for the match play format.
While he did not fare well in his debut last season, going 0-2-1, his draw of Mackenzie Hughes, Paul Casey, and Webb Simpson was less than welcoming for a first-timer. With some experience now under his belt and his game in check, he should find some success against one of the weaker groups in the field.
Group 12 Winner: Tom Hoge +250 (0.50 units):
We have seen a couple back-to-back champions this season with Viktor Hovland and Sam Burns, but Billy Horschel will have a difficult time following suit this week. Enjoying a fantastic Florida Swing which featured a near miss at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Horschel was a final day WD from The PLAYERS citing a lingering sinus infection.
This may leave the door open for one of the other members of this group as Min Woo Lee and Thomas Pieters both have the potential to play the role of “random member of the DP World Tour to make the Semifinals.” However, the steadiness of Hoge’s game and the consistency in which he strikes his irons is extremely attractive in this spot.
Contending most recently at The PLAYERS, this marked the fourth such occurrence in a seven-tournament stretch. Breaking through at the AT&T Pebble Pro-Am and nearly backing it up with another victory at the WM Phoenix Open, Hoge’s pinpoint accuracy with his scoring clubs will pose issues for his competitors. If his putter can find a semblance of form then I like the TCU product’s chances to advance before getting bounced in the next round.
Props YTD: +0.00 units, +0.00%
Total YTD: +55.24 units, +72.11%
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