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The first day of the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play got underway on Wednesday as Austin Country Club was filled with birdies, bogeys, and sprinkler head rulings. With a nice mixture of underdogs and favorites coming through, numerous matches made their way deep into the Pete Dye design.
One of those which did not was the matchup between Joaquin Niemann and Maverick McNealy. Mr. Irrelevant, McNealy, was the last man in the field when Sam Burns withdrew following his victory at the Valspar Championship. The former standout at Stanford answered the call in a big way, throttling the young Chilean to the tune of 8-and-6.
When asked what went right today, the world No. 74 said, “Yeah, definitely got off to a good start. I think I was 4-under through 7. Jaco didn’t have his best stuff today, but it’s one of those things where he’s such a good player I knew he could rattle off five birdies at any given time. Just wanted to keep the pedal down and make sure he didn’t have the opportunity.”
Not all were as lucky as McNealy as numerous big names fell on Day 1. In addition to Niemann, Justin Thomas and Louis Oosthuizen were the lone Pool A players to lose as they will now have their work cut out to advance out of the group stage. A visibly rusty Bryson DeChambeau played poorly and nearly followed suit, but was able to snag a half point from his pillow fight with Richard Bland.
This is music to our ears as we have zero exposure to those listed above. Wednesday saw three of our selections come out on top in addition to Keith Mitchell tying Patrick Cantlay and Brian Harman falling just short to Webb Simpson on the 18th hole. More than pleased, we will look to a few head-to-head matchups for Thursday.
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Updated Odds to Win (Odds Via PointsBet Sportsbook):
+1000: Jon Rahm
+1100: Viktor Hovland
+1200: Collin Morikawa
+1400: Scottie Scheffler
+1600: Dustin Johnson
+1800: Xander Schauffele
+2200: Brooks Koepka, Jordan Spieth
+2500: Tyrrell Hatton
+2800: Patrick Cantlay, Will Zalatoris
+3000: Billy Horschel, Matt Fitzpatrick, Talor Gooch
+3300: Abraham Ancer, Adam Scott, Alex Noren, Bryson DeChambeau, Kevin Kisner, Sergio Garcia
+4000: Corey Conners, Max Homa, Si Woo Kim, Thomas Pieters, Tommy Fleetwood, Webb Simpson, Maverick McNealy
+5000: Harold Varner III, Justin Thomas, Seamus Power
+6000: Luke List
+6600: Kevin Na, Lucas Herbert, Patrick Reed
+8000: Joaquin Niemann
+10000: Daniel Berger, Keith Mitchell
Day 2 Plays:
Keegan Bradley +105 over Adam Scott at DraftKings (1.00 unit):
I watched Bradley’s morning match against Spieth and while he came up short, there was more than enough good sprinkled in. Outside of chipping balls into the water, missing short putts, and blasting an approach shot out of bounds on a par-5, Bradley actually played quite well.
I expect to see the former PGA Champion rectify those mistakes on Day 2 and find a bit more comfort on the course. Always a jittery one, the added variable of playing Spieth in front of an Austin crowd did him no favors. With a much more low-key matchup in store, Bradley should settle into his own and hopefully find his touch on and around-the-greens.
Scott will be in the same boat as his day mirrored Bradley’s albeit in a victorious fashion. Admitting he played poorly, I will take his word for it as I was not all too high on the Australian’s prospects coming into the week. His play on Wednesday did nothing to sway me from this opinion and even more so when getting Bradley at this price.
Sergio Garcia +112 over Collin Morikawa at BetRivers (1.00 unit):
Essentially doubling down on our group wager on Garcia, the Spaniard once again impressed in the match play setting. Beating Jason Kokrak 4-and-3, Garcia carded three birdies and an eagle in only 15-holes.
The adopted son of Austin, this body of work was much more eye-catching than Morikawa’s. Sneaking by a struggling Robert MacIntyre on the par-3 17th, there are enough holes in the 25-year-old’s current game where I feel comfortable siding with his opponent. A man who has a career record of 29-22-1 in this tournament – in addition to being the all-time points leader in Ryder Cup history – our interest resides in Garcia.
Keith Mitchell +122 over Sungjae Im at BetRivers (1.00 unit):
Here are two players heading in opposite directions with today being a perfect encapsulation. Mitchell took Cantlay’s best punch on Wednesday, fending off chip-ins and holed putts from off the green. Able to secure half a point, the Georgia Bulldog’s dinner may still taste sour as he had a great opportunity for victory on the final hole.
Not meant to be, I expect the 30-year-old to take it to Im tomorrow. Struggling during the Florida Swing, the South Korean’s woes continued today as he fell 5-and-4 to Seamus Power. Carding three bogeys and a double bogey against only two birdies, Mitchell is in a favorable position at a very favorable price.
Tom Hoge +125 over Billy Horschel at DraftKings (1.00 unit):
It may be fair to say Hoge experienced a bit of nerves in his World Golf Championship debut as he fell 5-down after the first eight holes. Six birdies on the homeward half were not enough to climb out of the hole he dug himself as he eventually lost 2-and-1 to Thomas Pieters.
However, with seven birdies and an eagle on the scorecard, I am hoping Hoge is able to clean up the mistakes tomorrow. If he does, the TCU product should have a realistic chance to come through as an underdog against the defending champion.
2/3-Balls YTD: -10.50 units, -29.59%
Total YTD: +55.24 units, +72.11%
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