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Another week and another scoring record falls as Matthew NeSmith will take a two-stroke lead into the weekend at the Valspar Championship. Clipping the previous 36-hole tournament scoring record of 12-under 130 by two, the University of South Carolina product was unconscious on Friday.
Carding eight birdies and an eagle, the 28-year-old signed for a 10-under 61, tying the course record set by Padraig Harrington in 2012. The only player in the field to remain bogey-free, NeSmith’s ball-striking has been superb. Missing only four greens in regulation up to this point, the putter finally came alive for the Aiken native.
Posting +3.27 SG: Putting, it marked NeSmith’s best performance on the greens since the second round of the Palmetto Championship last summer. Known in the betting community as a player who can ball-strike with the best of them, NeSmith has implemented a new mantra this week of, “It’s going to be alright.”
When asked where this phrase came from, NeSmith replied, “Just been getting in my own way. I’ve done, I’ve been doing everything right. My game’s been great. I’ve really worked on the driver. I’ve really worked on putting it better. I’ve really worked on chipping it better. And I’ve gotten better in all those areas but I haven’t played any better.”
Adding, “So, at some point in time that falls on me and that falls on how I act and how I think and how I want to feel. And so, I’m done getting in my own way. And if it affects the way I play in a bad way, that’s fine, but I’m done with the anxiety. I’m done with trying to, trying so hard. And it’s been working out great the last two days, but it may not work out this weekend. It may work out awesome. I don’t know. But I’m going to keep going that way.”
NeSmith will have his work cut out for him this weekend with the likes of Justin Thomas and Sam Burns closely behind. The two sit atop the odds board at PointsBet Sportsbook despite the deficit as their winning pedigree is well apparent.
Our pre-tournament selections may have a say in how this tournament unfolds as Webb Simpson (-8), Gary Woodland (-7), and Patton Kizzire (-6) are well positioned. With Kizzire coming through in his 3-ball on Friday, we will once again look to this market for our third round action.
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Updated Odds to Win (Odds Via PointsBet):
+350: Justin Thomas
+400: Sam Burns
+500: Adam Hadwin, Matthew NeSmith
+1400: Scott Stallings
+1600: Xander Schauffele
+2800: Louis Oosthuizen, Webb Simpson
+3300: Matt Fitzpatrick
+4000: Brian Harman, Davis Riley
+5000: Tommy Fleetwood
+5500: Gary Woodland
+6000: Tyrrell Hatton
+8000: Collin Morikawa, Dustin Johnson, Jhonattan Vegas
+10000: Brooks Koepka, Martin Kaymer, Troy Merritt
+12500: Kevin Kisner, Patton Kizzire, Shane Lowry
+15000: Kevin Streelman, Stewart Cink, Viktor Hovland, David Lipsky
+30000: Joel Dahmen, Joseph Bramlett, Richy Werenski
Round 3 Plays:
Collin Morikawa -115 over Dustin Johnson at DraftKings (1.15 units):
Slowly, but surely, we will climb out of this hole we have dug ourselves in the first few months of the year. There may be no better player to turn to when in such a predicament than Morikawa. Currently second in SG: Off-the-Tee and eighth in SG: Approach, the ball-striking which was suspect to begin 2022 appears to be rounding into form.
Hitting 23-of-26 fairways and ranking seventh in Driving Distance, Morikawa has been let down by his short game. While I am not expecting him to perform up to his west coast levels, I do suspect two additional days around the Copperhead Course to bring a higher comfort level on the greens. If so, he should not only improve with the putter in hand, but also around the greens, as he is only 7-of-15 getting up-and-down.
This may spell trouble for the world No. 10 who admitted his final round at The PLAYERS Championship was a bit fraudulent. Revealing he was bailed out by a hot putter; I was a little surprised of Johnson’s second round of even-par 71 after a strong ball-striking round on Thursday.
Hitting only nine greens in regulation and ranking 133rd in SG: Approach on the day, Johnson was unable to garner any momentum. Having now lost strokes to the field on these greens in 5-of-6 rounds dating back to last season, this should hypothetically level out Morikawa’s weakness and give way for a Round 3 winner.
2/3-Balls YTD: -9.35 units, -28.02%
Total YTD: +58.85 units, +81.75%
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