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PGA Tour rookie Davis Riley will take a two-stroke lead into the final round of the Valspar Championship. Taking full advantage of his Moving Day, the former Alabama Crimson Tide felt right at home alongside Justin Thomas on Saturday.
Gaining nearly eight-strokes on the field, the two-time winner on the Korn Ferry Tour fired a bogey-free 9-under 62 in his third round. Posting +3.72 Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green and +3.99 SG: Putting, the 25-year-old actually lost strokes to the field with his ball-striking (Off-the-Tee + Approach) in Round 3.
Leading Matthew NeSmith by two and Sam Burns and Thomas by three, Riley will attempt to become the first rookie to win the PGA Tour in 2022. A class with high expectations coming into the year, gamers would not be surprised if Riley is the one to breakthrough first.
When asked to describe his rookie campaign thus far, he said, “Yeah, you know, I felt like I’ve been playing good golf for awhile, I just haven’t gotten the results I want to. I haven’t been too happy with it, but yeah, I’ve just been trying to be patient, I know I’ve been playing good golf and I’ve been hitting it well and now I finally got the putter rolling and kind of right where I wanted it to and that’s kind of why I’m playing well this week, the putter’s been really good to me and the driver as well for the most part. So, yeah, it’s just, it’s nice to get up there.”
Us too did not get the results we wanted in Round 3 as Collin Morikawa fell short of Dustin Johnson. With our outright wagers heading in the wrong direction, we will hope to finish the week on a high note with a matchup selection.
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Updated Odds to Win (Odds Via PointsBet Sportsbook):
+200: Davis Riley, Justin Thomas
+350: Sam Burns
+500: Matthew NeSmith
+2000: Adam Hadwin
+5000: Matt Fitzpatrick, Xander Schauffele
+10000: Brian Harman
+12500: Tommy Fleetwood, Troy Merritt
+15000: Alex Noren
+20000: Robert Streb
+40000: Tyler Duncan
+50000: Brice Garnett, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Greyson Sigg, Kevin Streelman, Mito Pereira, Ryan Brehm, Shane Lowry, Stewart Cink
Round 4 Plays:
Brian Harman +130 over Matt Fitzpatrick at DraftKings (1.00 unit):
They are fairly similar players and a matchup between the two should be closer to a pick ‘em. Not the case, we will side with the former Georgia Bulldog who has been solid throughout his bag outside from around-the-green. Bleeding strokes to his competitors in said category, Harman ranks inside the top-30 in every other statistical field.
Fitzpatrick certainly falls in the same bucket long-term, but has fallen short both on the greens and with his irons compared to Harman. If the case on Sunday, I see a hefty underdog capable of pulling an upset off in March, especially if Fitzpatrick’s putter chooses to be uncooperative once again.
2/3-Balls YTD: -10.50 units, -30.42%
Total YTD: +57.70 units, +78.89%
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