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Following a brief hiatus, first round leader selections are back after being granted the luxury of a week off due to the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play. Remaining in the state of Texas, weather immediately comes to mind if not discussed enough in recent weeks.
Accurately translating forecasts during the Florida Swing, the Texas winds present a much easier riddle to solve. With gusts exceeding 15 mph in the afternoon hours, the morning wave will receive our full and undivided attention.
A ball-striker’s course at its very core, those will be the players to target in Round 1 at TPC San Antonio despite what unfolded last season. As Camilo Villegas shot out of the gates in 2021 to the tune of 8-under 64, posting +3.21 Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green and +4.76 SG: Putting. Villegas followed up a similar putting performance from Si Woo Kim in 2019 when he posted +3.75 SG: Putting en route to a 6-under 66 in the first round.
Needing a bit of putt luck, this should allow for an outsider to claim the top spot on the leaderboard on Thursday. Our friends at PointsBet Sportsbook have Rory McIlroy as a clear-cut favorite to lead after Round 1 as the Northern Irishman was able to grab the early lead at the Arnold Palmer Invitational earlier this month.
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Odds to Lead After the First Round (Odds Via PointsBet):
+1600: Rory McIlroy
+3000: Jordan Spieth
+3300: Corey Conners, Hideki Matsuyama
+4000: Abraham Ancer
+5000: Adam Hadwin, Bryson DeChambeau, Chris Kirk, Gary Woodland, Keegan Bradley, Maverick McNealy, Si Woo Kim, Tony Finau
+6000: Jason Day, Jhonattan Vegas
+6600: Charley Hoffman, Davis Riley, Kevin Streelman, K.H. Lee, Luke List, Mito Pereira, Patton Kizzire, Rickie Fowler, Russell Knox, Ryan Palmer
To Lead After the First Round (Odds Via PointsBet):
David Lipsky +10000 (0.20 units):
The Korn Ferry Tour truthers may have issues with this selection as Lipsky signed for rounds of 75-69-73-78 in the TPC San Antonio Championship at the Oaks nearly two years ago. Luckily not one of them, I will gladly ride the hot hand as the Las Vegas resident has collected a paycheck in seven of his last eight tournaments.
A co-leader after Round 1 at Innisbrook, Lipsky continued his strong play last week at the Corales Puntacana Championship, eventually finishing in a tie for seventh place. Posting the low round on Friday, the 33-year-old continues to display the ability to piece the entirety of his game together.
Clearly striking the ball well, Lipsky has posted north of +1.00 SG: Putting in nine of his last 21 measured rounds. If able to perform up to this level on the greens, then he should have a chance to make it three tournaments in a row in which he cards the lowest round of the day.
Matt Jones +10000 (0.20 units):
Admittingly, Jones was not on my radar, but Josh Culp’s FanDuel article got me to come around on the Australian. A prior winner in the state of Texas, Jones has fared well at TPC San Antonio, connecting on 6-of-8 cuts with his best finish being a tie for 13th-place in 2017.
The first round leader at the Honda Classic last season on his way to victory, the 41-year-old once again displayed his propensity to go low at the Sentry Tournament of Champions when he finished on the podium behind Cameron Smith and Jon Rahm.
One of the best around-the-green players in this field, Jones also ranks second in proximity from 150-175 yards over the last 24 rounds. With single round performances of +2.63, +4.33, +1.68, +2.77, and +2.92 SG: Ball-Striking this year, if Jones can match this tee-to-green presence with an uptick in putting, he should be in business.
Matthew NeSmith +10000 (0.20 units):
If the term “ball-striker’s paradise” is brought up, NeSmith will inevitably be considered. Able to take a page out of Conners’ book, the South Carolinian arrives off a contention run at the Valspar Championship where he averaged +2.31 SG: Tee-to-Green and +1.98 SG: Approach per round.
Finishing in a tie for third, this marked NeSmith’s best finish of his career. Possessing a whole new mindset, I am willing to suggest it will carry into the Valero Texas Open where he captured a top-40 finish last season.
With some potential ties to the deserts out west, last season saw NeSmith play some of his best golf at TPC Summerlin and TPC Scottsdale. The first round leader in the 2021 WM Phoenix Open, NeSmith’s current form should allow him to get off to an equally impressive start.
Nick Taylor +10000 (0.20 units):
It is a lonely feeling to occupy Taylor Island, but I cannot seem to quit the Canadian given his current stretch of quality. 8-for-9 collecting paychecks this year, the two-time winner on the PGA Tour has continued to impress from tee-to-green.
Posting greater than +3.00 SG: Tee-to-Green in half of his measured outings, Taylor’s prowess from 150 to 200 yards is extremely attractive in this spot. Accurate off-the-tee and able to gain strokes on the field with putter in hand the last two editions of the Valero Texas Open, our outright thoughts on the 33-year-old will drift into Round 1.
Troy Merritt +10000 (0.20 units):
The best dressed man on the PGA Tour will round out the selections as Merritt is very much a boom-or-bust option. Most remembered this year for his Sunday charge at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, the 36-year-old has made 5-of-7 cuts while posting some tremendous approach numbers.
Boasting single round performances of +2.73, +1.06, +1.27, +1.13, +1.39, +1.18, +1.82, and +2.64 SG: Approach over the last three months, Merritt has looked sharp specifically from 150 to 175 yards. Nearly as imposing from the next yardage bucket, if the Idaho resident is able to run the table with the flat stick, he should be in store for a memorable day.
Round Leaders YTD: -5.79 units, -50.32%
Total YTD: +47.87 units, +54.38%
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