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The normalcy of stroke play returns this week as we embark on the 100th anniversary of the first playing of the Valero Texas Open. The ultimate precursor, players will experience one last tune up before heading east to Augusta National for the year’s first major championship.
As such, the Valero Texas Open also marks the last opportunity for competitors to play their way into The Masters. With the field set for next week’s event – the exceptions being this week’s winner and one 15-time major champion – those who finished just outside the top-50 in the official world golf ranking at the conclusion of the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play will look to find lightning in a bottle.
Namely, Richard Bland (+20000) who arrives off a T-9 effort at Austin Country Club and narrowly missed out on the qualifying threshold as he currently stands at world No. 53. The ultimate game within the game, the journeyman from England is not alone in needing a big week as Adam Hadwin (+3300), Keegan Bradley (+3300), and Maverick McNealy (+3300) are also on the outside looking in.
With so much Masters discussion, it is only fitting Rory McIlroy (+750) headlines the odds board at PointsBet Sportsbook. In what will be his second trip to the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio, the four-time major champion will look to improve on the runner-up result he captured in his lone appearance in 2013. If so, he will then attempt to become the first player since Phil Mickelson in 2006 to win The Masters after winning the week before.
I cannot say I love McIlroy’s chances this week as TPC San Antonio often rewards elite iron play and his eyes are surely on completing the career grand slam. Defending champion Jordan Spieth (+1200) will have to wait until May for his opportunity to do the same as he showed us last year what it takes to dismantle the Oaks Course on his way to 18-under.
Third in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and fourth in SG: Approach, the Texan continued the small trend of eventual champions finishing inside the top-4 of each statistical category. Spieth also collected another trophy for the Lone Star State as three of the last six winners have hailed from Texas – Jimmy Walker (+30000) in 2015 and Andrew Landry (+25000) in 2018 being the other two.
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While he may not reside in Texas, Patton Kizzire (+7000) may very well consider relocating based on his play in the state. A top-10 finisher in his Valero Texas Open debut last season, the Auburn product would eventually add to this result, finishing in a tie for third-place at both the Charles Schwab Challenge and the AT&T Byron Nelson.
Unbeknownst to why the big-hitting man from Alabama plays so well here, he arrives this time around with his game fully intact. Sneakily becoming one of the best iron players on Tour, Kizzire has now posted positive SG: Approach numbers in 7-of-8 starts this year, including five in a row.
Top-30 in SG: Around-the-Green and Birdies over his last 24 rounds, the final kicker is his play on a specific subsection of par-4s. According to our NBC Sports EDGE+ Driver Tool, the 36-year-old ranks first in this field in Par-4 Scoring from 400 to 450 yards. With roughly six – possibly seven depending on setup – such holes this week, we will happily look in Kizzire’s direction once again.
Kizzire’s consistency surely stuck out as he has collected a paycheck seven times this year. While not what he is known for, Rickie Fowler (+8000) is quietly putting the pieces of his game back together. Never one to pop in your stat models or anyone sportsbooks are afraid of, the five-time winner on Tour has plummeted to world No. 130.
No longer a fixture in major championships or even The PLAYERS Championship for that matter, Fowler’s game is a far cry from his memorable 2014 season. Perhaps giving too much credit for what little progress has been made, the 33-year-old has played himself into the weekend in his last three outings and appears as motivated ever.
Loving Fowler’s tone in Rex Hoggard’s article the week of The PLAYERS, the former Oklahoma State Cowboy is now approaching a historically comfortable spot on the golf calendar. Collecting back-to-back T-17 finishes in his two outings at TPC San Antonio, he comes off a performance of +2.48 SG: Off-the-Tee and +3.52 SG: Approach at Bay Hill.
Top-5 in this field in proximity from 175 to 200 yards, Fowler has been striking his mid irons surprisingly well. Prone to the occasional blowup hole, if able to rid himself of this volatility, I see potential in Fowler in this field.
Similar to our previous two selections, Ian Poulter (+9000) is a player in need of a trip to the winner’s circle in order to play at Augusta National. Pulling a rabbit out of his hat visor at the 2018 Houston Open with a playoff victory over Beau Hossler (+12500), the Englishman will look to repeat history.
Unable to play himself out of the group stage at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, Poulter fell to Matt Fitzpatrick and eventual champion Scottie Scheffler. Getting the better of Tommy Fleetwood, I believe there has been enough good in recent memory to consider the decorated Ryder Cupper this week.
5-for-6 on weekend showings this year, the 46-year-old started his 2022 on a high note having finished in a tie for sixth-place at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship. Yet to experience similar success in the United States, Poulter looked sharp during the Florida Swing, regularly gaining strokes on the field both on and around-the-green.
Never the issue for Poulter, it was comforting to see the iron play show signs of life at the Honda Classic and The PLAYERS. Making his first appearance in San Antonio since 2017, if able to perform in a similar vein with his scoring clubs, he could once again play himself into The Masters at the eleventh hour.
While short game tidiness is never a worry for Poulter, Martin Laird (+10000) cannot say the same. Yet despite his shortcomings in this area of the game, the Scotsman has been quite proficient from tee-to-green.
In fact, Laird has not lost strokes to the field from tee-to-green since last August at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational. Consistently gaining strokes both off-the-tee and on approach, the last two stops of the Florida Swing will not deter me as Laird has proven to be a top-10 iron player in this field.
The winner of this event in 2013, the 39-year-old has since made five consecutive cuts at the Oaks Course. Able to keep his weak spots above water during this span, if Laird can perform as he did at the WM Phoenix Open he should threaten the top of the leaderboard.
A common theme is developing in this article as I find myself targeting those players who have shown a semblance of consistency. With this being the case, I have K.H. Lee (+12500) mispriced at this current number. Missing the cut in his first start of the 2021-22 season, the South Korean has since rattled off 11 straight weekend appearances.
While he has yet to truly contend, a return to a TPC course in Texas may be the missing ingredient. Breaking through for his first victory last summer at TPC Craig Ranch for the AT&T Byron Nelson, Lee is capable of similar success at TPC San Antonio.
Finishing in a tie for 14th in 2019 and tie for 23rd in 2021, the sexiest golfer alive has clearly taken a liking to this property. So, while his waning approach figures are a cause for concern, the rest of his game is in a solid of enough position to warrant the investment.
The golf world was fixated on Austin CC this past weekend and rightfully so as Scheffler ascended to world No. 1 and numerous players secured their Masters invitations. Yet perhaps equally intriguing was the Corales Puntacana Championship which saw Chad Ramey (+9000) claim his maiden title on the PGA Tour.
Jhonattan Vegas (+5000), Alex Smalley (+9000), and Adam Schenk (+15000) were nipping on his heels and although a smidge farther behind, Nick Taylor (+12500) caught my eye when perusing down the odds board.
Finishing in a tie for 25th, the Canadian added to what has been an impressive year. Making 7-of-8 cuts, Taylor’s closest calls have come in the form of a tie for 14th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and a tie for 16th at the Honda Classic.
Continuing to strike the ball well both off-the-tee and on approach, the way in which previous champions have won should only embolden Taylor’s prospects. Corey Conners (+1800), Kevin Chappell (+20000), and Landry finished outside the top-10 in SG: Putting and outside the top-45 in SG: Around-the-Green the week of their victories. Relying primarily on their ball-striking, this is the path Taylor will likely need to take en route to his third PGA Tour title.
Outright Selections:
Patton Kizzire +7000 at PointsBet (0.47 units)
Rickie Fowler +8000 at DraftKings (0.41 units)
Ian Poulter +9000 at PointsBet (0.37 units)
Martin Laird +10000 at PointsBet (0.33 units)
K.H. Lee +12500 at BetRivers (0.26 units)
Nick Taylor +12500 at PointsBet (0.26 units)
Outrights YTD: +68.86 units, +213.53%
Total YTD: +47.87 units, +54.38%
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