US Open week is finally here! It’s wild to think that after this weekend, we will only have one more major left this season. Professional golf is headed to Los Angeles Country Club for golf’s third major of the year. This week will be difficult in the outright betting market for me. I started to build my portfolio of futures on golfers I liked over the last year. So, I’ll have action on guys like Hideki Matsuyama, Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, and Max Homa. The problem is, unless you follow me on Twitter, you likely missed out on the prices I played or even how I parlayed them to get better odds. That leaves me with one of two options: I recommend the futures at terrible prices or just recommend betting on one or two golfers and call it a day. That’s precisely what I’ve decided to do.
Before I get into whom I’d like to bet this week, let’s look at Los Angeles Country Club. The 7,421-yard par 70 course will be an absolute delight to watch. The course will require excellence off the tee and great precision on the second shot. This week’s winner will likely have to kill it in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. The fairways are Bermuda, but the greens aren’t the typical Poa seen at many Californian courses. The greens at LACC are Bentgrass. Here’s a look at the best putters on Bentgrass over the last 36 rounds:
While putting prowess always comes in handy at any professional tournament, the length of this course is something to pay attention to. The par 3s here are beast. They have 228, 284, 171, 290, and 124 yardages. You read that correctly; two par 3s are over 280 yards. Much like last week, there isn’t much data to go from due to the lack of professional events here. However, one thing is for sure; this course will be challenging, and both SG: T2G and Bogey Avoidance will be critical. Here are the top five golfers in each category:
SG: T2G
Bogey Avoidance
Last year we correctly predicted Matt Fitzpatrick to win the US Open at Brookline. It was 100% a narrative play. He had success at that course, winning the US Amateur there. He then used that confidence to pick up his first major championship. The 2017 Walker Cup was played at LACC, and three golfers from the victorious Team USA are in the field: Scheffler, Morikawa, and Maverick McNealy.
Picks to win the 2023 US Open
Scottie Scheffler +700
I played Scheffler for two units this week. I generally prefer to avoid betting on golfers to win a tournament at +700, especially a major. However, despite not winning since The Players Championship, he’s absolutely been the best golfer on the planet. He finished T10 at the Master, T11 at RBC Heritage, and has four straight top-five finishes. It’s wild to think he was in contention at both Charles Schwab and the Memorial Tournament while losing -4.6 strokes and -8.5 strokes putting, respectively. That is because he’s been a beast tee-to-green. Since his win at The Players, he’s gained, on average, 14.16 strokes tee-to-green per tournament.
At a course requiring golfers to be elite off the tee and on approach, I’m comfortable backing Scheffler. Over the last 36 rounds, he’s first in SG: Off-the-Tee and first in SG: Approach. To show exactly how dominant Scheffler has been tee-to-green, over the last 36 rounds, he’s gained +117.9 strokes tee-to-green; the next closest is McIlroy at +64.9. The conditions have been softer than many expected; I give golfers like McIlroy and Scheffler an advantage. It’s wild how great Scheffler has been playing; if he can somehow go even putting this week, he should win. Did I mention Scheffler won here in 2017 at the Walker Cup? Maybe this will settle his nerves with the flat stick!
Tyrrell Hatton +4000
I played Hatton for 0.5 units this week. There are very few golfers playing better than Hatton. Despite being unable to win the RBC Canadian Open as the odds-on favorite, Hatton still played very well. He finished T3 but was scorching hot in the 4th round. In the last three months, Hatton has five top-five finishes. He’s seen success at challenging courses and should be live to win this week.
Hatton doesn’t have much win equity, but when looking at the other golfers in that price range, he’s certainly playing better than most. If he continues to gain a ton of strokes ball striking, he will remain competitive. This one is much more palatable compared to his +1100-price last week.
