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Grab some ibuprofen and electrolytes as there is no time to nurse a major hangover. The RBC Heritage is upon us as players will be making the short trip from Augusta, Georgia to Hilton Head, South Carolina for the 54th playing of this event.
A fixture on the PGA Tour since the 1960s, Harbour Town Golf Links will once again welcome the world’s best as a surprisingly stout field has made its way to the Atlantic coast. Six of the top-10 finishers from the Masters Tournament are slated to play including a disappointed Cameron Smith (+1400) who shot out of the gates last year with an opening round of 9-under 62.
Adequately suited for Harbour Town, the Australian possesses the perfect combination of precise iron-play and red-hot putting needed for this Pete Dye design. Having just won on another one of his properties, TPC Sawgrass, no one should be surprised if the 28-year-old notches his third title of the season.
While Smith is enjoying a career year, many of the game’s elites are not as the tournament favorite at PointsBet Sportsbook, Justin Thomas (+1100), has remained winless for nearly 400 days. Perhaps pressing a bit too much at Augusta National, the American headlines the likes of Collin Morikawa (+1300), Dustin Johnson (+1500), Patrick Cantlay (+1600), Shane Lowry (+2000), and Corey Conners (+2200) at the top of the odds board.
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The case could be made for any of those mentioned above and my initial attention was drawn to the passionate Irishman, however I have opted to fancy him in a month’s time at +6000 for the PGA Championship instead. Playing the long game, a name which caught my eye farther down the board was that of Joaquin Niemann (+3500).
In the midst of a career season, similar to his good friend Smith, the young Chilean has continued to impress when in the spotlight. A date with Tiger Woods at the Masters would throw many young guns off their games, but not Niemann.
Striking the ball well over the first two days at Augusta, Niemann fell off over the weekend to finish in a tie for 35th. Still, he was able to turn in a positive tee-to-green performance, making him a flawless 5-for-5 in that department in 2022.
+14.12 Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green en route to his victory at the Genesis Invitational, Niemann more recently posted +7.56 SG: Tee-to-Green at The PLAYERS Championship. Falling short on the greens of TPC Sawgrass, the Florida transplant has often done his best work with the flat stick when on the east coast.
Unapparent during the Florida Swing, the tide should eventually turn for the 23-year-old. Capable of giving himself plenty of scoring opportunities, Niemann’s length off-the-tee has the potential to be a deciding factor. While only a shade under 7,200 yards, 3-of-6 winners at Harbour Town have ranked inside the top-15 in Driving Distance the week of their triumphs.
The world No. 15 checks not only that box, but also ranks inside the top-20 in this field in SG: Approach and proximity from 175-200 yards over the last three months. Hardly mentioned among the game’s elites, Niemann now sits ahead of Brooks Koepka, Bryson DeChambeau, and Jordan Spieth (+2800) in the official world golf rankings and has a fantastic chance to prove yet again he belongs.
Niemann was not alone in faltering over the weekend at the Masters as Matt Fitzpatrick (+2200), Billy Horschel (+3500), and Harold Varner III (+5000) experienced poor moving days. Posting three under-par rounds, Kevin Na (+7000) was a player who punched above his weight as he signed for rounds 71-71-79-69.
10th in SG: Tee-to-Green and first in SG: Approach, the 38-year-old’s most memorable moment came in the form of a five-putt on the par-3 16th during Saturday’s round. Without the Johnson brothers looking on, the early-stepper should find more success on the greens of Harbour Town.
If he does, he will factor as this par-71 is tailor made for someone like Na. With previous victories at Waialae Country Club and Colonial Country Club in addition to a playoff loss at Sedgefield Country Club, this week presents one of the rare opportunities for Na’s skillset to thrive.
Hemorrhaging distance to his counterparts, Na is relatively straight off-the-tee and showcased this last week as he led the field in both Driving Accuracy and Greens in Regulation. If able to bring this tee-to-green prowess south, it is conceivable the five-time winner on the PGA Tour adds trophy No. 6 to his mantle.
Na fits the mold of a Kevin Kisner (+5000) type who is surely to be a popular selection in his home state. With every intention of backing the Georgia Bulldog, a former teammate of his at double the price brought more intrigue as Brian Harman (+10000) appears close to reentering the winner’s circle.
Trophy-less in nearly five years, the fiery left-hander has experienced his fair share of close calls in 2022 alone. A podium finisher at The American Express, Harman fell off the pace at the WM Phoenix Open before finishing in a tie for fifth place at the Valspar Championship.
A known Pete Dye specialist, much like Abraham Ancer (+4000) and Si Woo Kim (+5000), the 35-year-old has often upped his game on courses such as Austin Country Club, TPC Sawgrass, and TPC River Highlands. 8-for-10 collecting a paycheck over the last decade in Hilton Head, Harman has slowly garnered more consistency around Harbour Town despite struggles with his scoring clubs.
Unable to gain more than three-strokes on approach, Harman has often relied on his short-game to navigate around this tricky property. Finding something in his ball-striking once the Tour hit the mainland in January, this week presents an ideal spot on the calendar for Harman to piece the entirety of his game together.
Not too far from Harman’s home in Sea Island, Georgia, the crossover between the RBC Heritage and the RSM Classic has been apparent throughout the years. If this proves to be true once again, I believe Sebastian Munoz (+10000) is a name worth clicking.
After missing the cut in his first start of the year at PGA West, the Colombian has rattled off five consecutive weekend showings. While his results offer no signs of winning potential, I am reminded of his 54-hole position the last time we saw him on a Dye design in a stroke-play event.
Featured in the last grouping at The PLAYERS, Munoz’s week unraveled with an opening double-bogey as he would go on to card a final round of 5-over 77. Willing to forgive the 29-year-old, Munoz’s early season tee-to-green presence is too strong to ignore.
With performances of +9.76, +8.88, and +4.36 SG: Tee-to-Green under his belt, I expect similar if not better metrics given this week’s venue. A third-place finisher at Sea Island in November, some of Munoz’s best results have come on these shorter, positional-based golf courses, which Harbour Town certainly falls under.
Also a factor in the year’s fifth major before a poor Monday finish was Tom Hoge (+10000) who is among the long list of first-time winners on the PGA Tour this season. Since his victory at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, the world No. 38 has not taken his foot off the gas.
Playing himself into weekend contention the following week at the WM Phoenix Open, the TCU product continued to strike the ball well once the Tour traveled east. A tie for 32nd at the Arnold Palmer Invitational was backed up by the second-best tee-to-green performance of his career at TPC Sawgrass.
Posting +9.60 SG: Tee-to-Green, Hoge disappointed on the greens, losing 5.24 strokes to the field with the putter in hand. While this is a concern, Stewart Cink (+10000) finished 25th in SG: Putting in last season’s tournament which could provide a way in. Given the 32-year-old’s ball-striking and a comfort level emerging on these greens the last two years, Hoge makes for a sound investment.
Unfortunate to not be on Hoge at Pebble Beach, we instead sided with Joel Dahmen (+18000) who was in with a chance alongside Spieth before a painful back-nine on Sunday. Similar to his buddy, Max Homa, the Washingtonian has performed his best on difficult, classical venues such as Quail Hollow, Riviera, and Bay Hill.
Despite this, I tend to favor him on courses where finding fairways is rewarded and wedge play can come to one’s aid. Those are the essentials of Dahmen’s game as showcased in his victory last year at the Corales Punta Cana Championship.
Having skipped this event last season to nurse a month-long hangover, he arrives this year fresh and recharged after catching a stomach bug the week of his title defense. While he is known to run into issues with the putter, Dahmen did post +3.88 SG: Putting in his lone April appearance in Hilton Head which gives me enough confidence to consider him at this lengthy price.
Outright Selections:
Joaquin Niemann +3500 at PointsBet (0.94 units)
Kevin Na +7000 at DraftKings (0.47 units)
Brian Harman +10000 at DraftKings (0.33 units)
Sebastian Munoz +10000 at BetMGM (0.33 units)
Tom Hoge +10000 at DraftKings (0.33 units)
Joel Dahmen +18000 at DraftKings (0.18 units)
Outrights YTD: +62.64 units, +162.85%
Total YTD: +45.58 units, +41.76%
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