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The PGA Tour travels two hours south to Hilton Head Island, South Carolina for the 54th playing of the RBC Heritage. One of the most underrated events of the season, 132 players are set to take on Harbour Town Golf Links in what is likely to be another memorable rendition of this tournament.
As always, it begins on Thursday, and as always, weather is a topic of conversation in SEC country. Mother Nature is the main defense for this par-71, with wind in particular wreaking havoc on these players. Typically, this means calmer conditions in the early hours, but this week the Atlantic breeze appears steady throughout Round 1.
Forecasted to be 10 mph with the potential for gusts up to 20 mph, we will spread our first round investment across both waves. Last year, Stewart Cink jumped out to an early 8-under lead only to be taken down by Cameron Smith who came home in 9-under in the late afternoon.
Able to navigate not only the tricky property, but also the blustery conditions, it is no surprise Smith leads the way at PointsBet Sportsbook to lead after Round 1. Joined by fellow top-10 finishers at the Masters, Collin Morikawa and Justin Thomas, the trio possess the ingredients needed for the first round recipe.
Discipline off-the-tee, precise with their irons, and capable of catching a hot putter, this sums up the ideal candidate for Thursday. Forgoing the urge to back the majority of our outright selections, numerous longshots grabbed my attention which is surely not a mistake in the making.
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Odds to Lead After the First Round:
+2500: Cameron Smith, Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas
+3000: Daniel Berger, Dustin Johnson, Matt Fitzpatrick
+3500: Corey Conners, Sungjae Im, Joaquin Niemann, Patrick Cantlay, Shane Lowry
+4000: Billy Horschel, Jordan Spieth, Kevin Kisner, Tyrrell Hatton, Webb Simpson
+5000: Alex Noren, Chris Kirk, Harold Varner III, Jason Kokrak, Kevin Na, Maverick McNealy
+5500: Adam Hadwin, Russell Henley, Si Woo Kim, Tommy Fleetwood
+6000: Brian Harman, Ian Poulter, Matt Kuchar
+6600: Kevin Streelman, Mito Pereira, Tom Hoge
+8000: Aaron Wise, Cameron Tringale, Cameron Young, Charles Howell III, Denny McCarthy, Dylan Frittelli, Erik van Rooyen, J.J. Spaun, Luke List, Patton Kizzire, Sebastian Munoz, Sepp Straka, Stewart Cink, Troy Merritt
To Lead After the First Round:
Brian Stuard +13000 at DraftKings (0.15 units):
Harbour Town has a way of rewarding a certain type of player and Stuard certainly meets the criteria. The most accurate driver in this field over the last three months, the 39-year-old has carded nine consecutive rounds of under-par golf in Hilton Head dating back to 2019.
Possessing a better scoring average at Harbour Town than Dustin Johnson, Kevin Kisner, and Ian Poulter this is the perfect spot on the calendar to target Stuard. His iron play was extremely sharp during the Florida Swing, leading to strong finishes at the Honda Classic and Valspar Championship in addition to those at the Puerto Rico Open and Corales Puntcana Championship.
In this four-tournament span, Stuard signed for 16 rounds of par-or-better, so I will happily chance him at this price on a course he is clearly comfortable on.
Doug Ghim +13000 at DraftKings (0.15 units):
Perhaps not mentioned in the same light as Simpson, Harman, or Kim, Ghim is another player well-equipped for the Pete Dye examination. Finishing in a tie for 33rd-place in his RBC Heritage debut last season, the Chicagoan rallied in the final round, carding a 5-under 66, good for the second-best score of the day.
He arrives this time around having gained strokes from tee-to-green in his last three events, including +8.04 Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green at TPC Sawgrass. After an up-and-down start to his year, Ghim’s iron play is beginning to stabilize, specifically from 150-200 yards. If this remains on Thursday, he will just need a cooperative putter in order to card a round in the mid-60s.
Joel Dahmen +13000 at DraftKings (0.15 units):
The lone outright selection of ours to sneak into our Thursday interest, Dahmen is a player we have backed numerous times. Connecting on five consecutive cuts – withholding the “stomach bug” WD in Corales – the 34-year-old’s ball-striking has been terrific since his close call at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Another venue to feature small greens, Dahmen should once again thrive at Harbour Town. Accurate off-the-tee and competent with his mid irons and wedges, the world No. 111 displayed his full potential in Hilton Head when he carded an 8-under 63 in 2020.
Nate Lashley +13000 at DraftKings (0.15 units):
He shares this honor with Hoge, but I was surprised to see Lashley’s name top the list for proximity from 175-200 yards in this field. Top-30 in both Driving Accuracy and Greens in Regulation over the last three months, the 39-year-old has been converting his scoring opportunities at an efficient clip.
This has led to a consistent four-tournament stretch boasting finishes of T-7, T-27, T-15, and T-18. Like Stuard, all 16 rounds during this timeframe have gone for par-or-better with numerous days in the mid-60s.
Kramer Hickok +16000 at DraftKings (0.13 units):
If not this week, then maybe never for Hickok who has become a fixture in this article. Half joking – I think he will be a great fit at TPC Potomac in a few weeks – the Texan has been close to the Thursday pay dirt on multiple occasions.
One off the first round pace at TPC Sawgrass, Hickok followed up this effort by converting birdies chances on his first four holes at the Valspar Championship. Running out of steam, Hickok carried this form to Corales where he finished in a tie for 13th-place courtesy of a final round of 6-under 66.
Doc Redman +20000 at PointsBet (0.10 units):
DFL after last year’s opening round, Redman signed for a 10-over 81 and sat 19-strokes off the lead after just 18-holes. Looking for a drastic turnaround, the former U.S. Amateur Champion comes in having flashed some form since February.
On the shoulders of streaky iron play and putting, this combination should allow Redman a way in on Thursday. While 2021 was a disaster, 2020 was much friendlier as he closed out his RBC Heritage with rounds of 66-65-67.
Luke Donald +20000 at PointsBet (0.10 units):
There was a point a decade ago, before (and during) all the Louis Oosthuizen slander, where Donald was a known bridesmaid in Hilton Head. Finding the podium seven (!!!) times in a nine-year stretch, the former world No. 1 developed a nice comfort level around Harbour Town.
Now 44-years-old, the Englishman ranks fourth in SG: Approach over the last three months. Averaging +1.18 SG: Approach per round, Donald’s former strength, his putter, has returned to his corner in recent tournaments. A weakness for the modern-day Donald, this is a welcomed sight, and if able to avoid one his wayward off-the-tee days, he could be in line for a fast start.
Round Leaders YTD: -7.76 units, -57.59%
Total YTD: +45.58 units, +41.76%
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