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144 players are set to take on TPC Sawgrass on Thursday for the 40th edition of The Players Championship held on the Pete Dye design. While we have been lucky in recent weeks to accurately decipher the weather forecast, we have been unable to get a read on the first-round market.
This week presents even more of a challenge as rain, winds, and cold weather are expected to roll into the Ponte Vedra Beach area. Between the potential for winds to be at their peak at varying hours of the day and thunderstorms to delay most, if not all, of the first-round, we are in a conundrum of sorts.
Against my better judgment, I side with the AM tee times as the wind gusts will reach 20 mph, slightly tamer than what the majority of the PM wave are expected to face. With our player pool effectively cut in half, we will focus on the same method which led to our outright selections.
A strong tee-to-green presence blended with par-5 aptitude and crisp wedge play is the essential winning profile. Hopeful to receive the same variance we have been accompanied by on Sundays, we will need to surpass some of the world’s best on Thursday.
Our friends at PointsBet Sportsbook have priced the first-round leader market as tee times were released Monday afternoon. In what some may consider a surprise, it is world No. 2 Collin Morikawa leading the way at +2000 with Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, and Rory McIlroy closely behind at +2500.
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Odds to Lead After the First-Round (Odds Via PointsBet):
+2000: Collin Morikawa
+2500: Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy
+2800: Viktor Hovland
+3300: Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay
+4000: Hideki Matsuyama, Daniel Berger, Shane Lowry, Will Zalatoris, Sungjae Im
+4500: Billy Horschel
+5000: Brooks Koepka, Cameron Smith, Dustin Johnson, Joaquin Niemann, Max Homa, Sam Burns, Adam Scott, Louis Oosthuizen, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tyrrell Hatton
+6000: Corey Conners, Jordan Spieth, Marc Leishman, Talor Gooch, Abraham Ancer, Jason Day, Tony Finau
To Lead After the First-Round:
Paul Casey +8000 at BetRivers (0.25 units):
He got stuffed in a locker over the weekend by Arnold Palmer to the tune of 77-83. Posting rounds reminiscent of my junior golf days, I am willing to overlook Casey’s effort in what was a brutal final 48 hours at Bay Hill.
Instead, we will take on a somewhat macro perspective as the Englishman has been extremely impressive to kick off 2022. Playing sparingly, Casey gained north of 1.50 SG: Approach in 3-of-4 rounds at Riviera before posting +6.72 Strokes Gained: Approach in his first two days in Orlando.
Top-10 in this field over the last 24 rounds in SG: Approach, Greens in Regulation, and Proximity from 125 to 150 yards, the 44-year-old was finally able to figure out the greens of TPC Sawgrass en route to his T-5 finish last season. Posting rounds of 67-67 in the middle of the tournament, if able to play the par-5s in 3-under, he should improve on those scores.
Sebastian Munoz +10000 at PointsBet (0.20 units):
The leader after the first-round not all too long ago at the RSM Classic, Munoz is a player I prefer to target on these shorter, Bermuda courses. TPC Sawgrass would certainly fit the bill and despite only having three competitive rounds under his belt on this par-72, the way in which the Colombian is currently playing squashes any concerns.
Averaging +1.92 SG: Tee-to-Green in his last 12 rounds, the 29-year-old has carded scores of 67-68 at TPC Scottsdale and 66 at Riviera. Giving him a pass for last week at Bay Hill, where he captured yet another top-30 finish, Munoz arrives to TPC Sawgrass with complete confidence.
His one kryptonite as of late has been the putter, but if his three rounds in Ponte Vedra have proven anything, it is his ability on these greens. With performances of +0.89 and +2.81 SG: Putting to his name, anything positive with the flat stick in hand should propel Munoz near the top of the leaderboard.
Keith Mitchell +10000 at PointsBet (0.20 units):
I mentioned the worry of fatigue when it comes to Mitchell and while it may rear its ugly head deeper into the tournament, he has more than enough firepower to shoot out of the gates on Thursday. Last looking his way in this department at THE CJ CUP @ SUMMIT, he did just that, posting a 10-under 62 and adding to our laundry list of bad beats.
In what may be considered the turning point in his season, Mitchell’s lack of success at TPC Sawgrass does not bother me. As despite the troubles, there has been some good mixed in, specifically in 2019 when in windy conditions, the Georgia product put together a round of 7-under 65, the second best of the day behind only Jim Furyk’s 64.
A completely revamped and retooled player since, the 30-year-old arrives as one of the best off-the-tee presences in the game. Combined with ranking inside the top-30 in SG: Par-5, SG: Tee-to-Green, Greens in Regulation and Scrambling over his last 24 rounds and it is very plausible to see Mitchell repeating his 2019 second round showing on Thursday.
K.H. Lee +12500 at PointsBet (0.16 units):
Lee has been on our radar for a while now as we fancied him early in the Sentry Tournament of Champions and overall, at The American Express. Capturing the first-round lead in Palm Springs with a round of 8-under 64, the South Korean has since remained steady.
Opening with a 6-under 65 in Phoenix, Lee posted rounds of 67-67 at Riviera the following week. While the iron play has continued to struggle since the first month of 2022, the rest of his game is intact, particularly off-the-tee and around-the-green.
A fantastic wedge player, last year’s tournament provides some hope as he arrived in middling form and proceeded to gain +6.68 SG: Ball-Striking. Relatively level on the greens for the week, if able to replicate either his third round at the API (+2.57 SG: Putting) or second round at the Honda (+2.28 SG: Putting), he should be in good shape.
Aaron Wise +13000 at DraftKings (0.15 units):
Slowly but surely, Wise is regaining his fall form which enamored so many. Struggling at the beginning of his 2022, the Oregon product found something in his game at the Genesis and eventually materialized into a T-17 result last week at the API.
With leaderboard crossover between The Players and the Wells Fargo Championship – mutual past champions in McIlroy, Jason Day, and Rickie Fowler – the potential for any correlation will be to Wise’s liking. Playing some of his best golf in Charlotte, North Carolina, he arrives to Ponte Vedra Beach this week off a performance of +10.56 SG: Tee-to-Green, the second-best of his career.
Jhonattan Vegas +16000 at FanDuel (0.13 units):
The lone selection to not play at Bay Hill, I am more than happy to click Vegas’ name at a price this long. A first-round staple over the last year, the Venezuelan most recently came through for us at the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities.
Known to struggle with his putter every now and again, those troubles have a way of disappearing when at TPC Sawgrass. In his two March Players appearances, Vegas has posted positive results on the greens in 6-of-8 rounds. With single round performances of +2.90, +2.30, and +1.59 SG: Putting, Vegas played himself into contention in the windy 2019 edition of this tournament. Posting rounds of 67-66 over the weekend, something similar could be in store for Thursday given the current state of his game.
First-Round Leaders YTD: -8.75 units, -100.00%
Total YTD: +58.53 units, +91.19%
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