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Picks and tips for Safeway Open

Harold Varner III

Harold Varner III

Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to a brand new season on the PGA Tour.

Sure, the previous edition ended just days ago at the Tour Championship, with Dustin Johnson lifting the FedEx Cup. But it’s time to kick off the 2020-21 season, another unprecedented campaign that will include six majors and a total of 50 tournaments over the next 11 months.

While many of the biggest names are resting this week ahead of the U.S. Open, 156 others have gathered in wine country for the Safeway Open. Phil Mickelson and Jordan Spieth are among those who will head straight from Napa to Winged Foot, while it’s an opportunity for several lesser-known players to start their season with a big result after top-ranked stars dominated the playoffs.

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Silverado Resort & Spa once again plays host to this event, a course that puts high premium on accuracy into the green and putting on fickle poa annua surfaces. Here’s a look at some of the players and wagers worth consideration heading into the season opener:

To Win (odds via PointsBet Sportsbook)

Harold Varner III (30/1): Varner is on the short list of best players still in search of a breakthrough win, a trait that could become a bit of a trend this week when trying to tab potential wagers with many household names watching from the couch. But Varner’s stat line is actually more impressive than you might think (18th in total strokes gained last season, eighth in SG: Tee-to-Green) and he worked his way into the mix last season at venerable layouts like Riviera and Colonial. Varner finished T-7 in Greensboro just a couple weeks ago, and his Silverado record includes three top-20 finishes in the last four years. Throw in his 2016 result, when he was on the first page of the leaderboard before plummeting with a final-round 79, and the North Course is clearly one where he tends to play his best.

Chez Reavie (33/1): Reavie isn’t the longest player on Tour, but he tends to capitalize on the courses that most suit his game. Silverado definitely fits that bill, as the veteran has never missed a cut in Napa while racking up three top-25 finishes in the last five years. Reavie ended a lengthy victory drought last year in Connecticut and flashed some post-pandemic form earlier this summer, notably a T-6 finish against a strong WGC field in Memphis. While he’s not often among the shorter prices at typical a Tour stop, the combination of a weaker field and a course that fits his style of play puts him (deservedly) among the pre-tournament favorites.

Luke List (60/1): List is a top-tier ball-striker who is often slowed by a balky putter, but he seems to have figured out the poa annua surfaces at Silverado. List’s T-4 finish in 2018 is the highlight of four prior starts, with 12 of his 14 rounds on the North Course below par. List hasn’t won on Tour, but he lifted the trophy at the first Korn Ferry event back from break in June and has since added a top-10 at Memorial while making four of his last five cuts. The long game (22nd last season in SG: Tee-to-Green) should be there, and a nibble at this price could pay off handsomely if the putter decides to cooperate.


Top-10 Finishes (odds via PointsBet)

Joel Dahmen (+325 top 10): Like Varner, Dahmen’s maiden Tour victory feels like a matter of when, not if. The 32-year-old doesn’t shy away from discussing the financial windfalls available at every Tour stop, and he has cashed plenty of checks in recent months while developing into a reliable top-20 presence. Dahmen has contended across a wide variety of venues - Riviera, Bay Hill and TPC Harding Park just to name a few in recent months. His solid iron play, which led to an eight-birdie performance in difficult conditions at Olympia Fields in his most recent competitive round, puts him in good position to change his relative lack of success at Silverado this week. Dahmen tends to have a rough stretch of holes that derails his title chances, but a top-10 result this week is certainly within reach.

Brendan Steele (+525 top 5): There’s no denying that Steele circles this event on the calendar every year. Two of his three career wins have come at Silverado, in back-to-back fashion no less in 2016-17. Steele regressed after the second of those two wins, but he is quietly on the comeback trail in recent months with seven straight made cuts since a T-6 finish at the Travelers Championship. That run also includes top-25s at the Memorial and the PGA, as Steele improved more than 100 spots in SG: Putting from 2019 to 2020. A playoff runner-up earlier this year in Hawaii, Steele doesn’t contend consistently but he does tend to make the most out of the weeks when his game is clicking.

Zac Blair (18/1 top 10): These are some amazingly enticing odds for a player who could absolutely contend on this layout. Blair played in the final group at Silverado in his very first start as a Tour member back in 2013, finishing T-12, and last year he tied for fourth. While he has largely struggled with form since the break and is now juggling additional duties as a new father, Blair has displayed an affinity for this layout and has come out of nowhere in the past to contend on both the PGA and Korn Ferry circuits. Blair doesn’t have the firepower to challenge on every Tour layout, but this is one where his skill set stands up favorably.


Head-to-Head Matchups

Brandt Snedeker (+100) over Jordan Spieth

Snedeker let one get away at this event two years ago, squandering a five-shot lead on the back nine en route to a T-2 finish. He fits the bill of a player you’d expect to contend at Silverado, and you need look no further than his record at places like Torrey Pines to see that Snedeker is one of the Tour’s best when it comes to solving the poa annua riddle on the greens. Spieth, meanwhile, is making his tournament debut and has shown few signs of life since returning from the pandemic break. His game will eventually turn around, but right now it seems like a perfect chance to lean on a player with a stronger course history.

Joel Dahmen (+110) over Shane Lowry

Dahmen’s strengths have already been mentioned, but this is a great opportunity to fade the reigning Open champ at plus-money. Lowry hasn’t played since a missed cut at TPC Boston, and he spent much of his pre-tournament interview (understandably) talking about the emotional toll of being away from his wife and child in Ireland for more than six weeks. Lowry likely wouldn’t be here were it not for the pandemic conditions, and he essentially copped to entering this week’s event because he needed something to do ahead of next week’s U.S. Open. With a player of his pedigree, there’s always a chance that these circumstances can lead to an unexpected run up the leaderboard. But given his relatively sluggish performance since the break, it seems far more likely that Lowry’s focus is elsewhere and that Dahmen is poised for an upset.

Mark Hubbard (-115) over Tyler Duncan

In a relatively even matchup between two players who narrowly missed out on the Tour Championship, Hubbard is the way to go. The former San Jose State product knows this area well, and he has played well at this tournament including a T-13 showing last year. His relative weaknesses (driving and chipping) are less important this week, while his relative strengths (iron play and putting) carry more weight. Duncan was the 54-hole leader at this event three years ago, but he stumbled to a T-5 finish and hasn’t cracked the top 50 here the last two years. While he earned a breakthrough win last fall at Sea Island, he’s added just one top-25 finish since the Tournament of Champions in January.

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