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The PGA Tour’s postseason begins this week in the shadow of Lady Liberty.
The Northern Trust will host 124 of the top 125 players on Tour, with only Louis Oosthuizen opting out. It’s the first of three playoff events leading to a $15 million winner next month at the Tour Championship, with Liberty National Golf Club hosting for the first time since 2019 and the fourth time overall. The chase near the top will be to jockey for position in the points race, while those further down are simply hoping to extend their season: only the top 70 will earn a spot at next week’s BMW Championship.
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There is temptation to lob a longshot grenade at this board, and one hit on this very course back in 2009: with a decorated group of runners-up that included Tiger Woods, Ernie Els and Padraig Harrington, it was instead journeyman Heath Slocum who captured the trophy. Subsequent winners here include Adam Scott (2013) and Patrick Reed (2019).
While Slocum’s win showed that anything can happen in the postseason, and there are a bevy of options north of 200-to-1 this week at PointsBet Sportsbook, the conventional wisdom suggests you’re better off sticking with the top of the odds chart. Over the last five years, the playoff opener has rotated venues but has generally been won by top-flight talent: twice by Reed, twice by Dustin Johnson and once by Bryson DeChambeau. Hunter Mahan (2014) was the last true curve ball, but by and large this is a time of year when the cream rises to the top.
So with that in mind I plan to lean on some of the shorter prices to win this week while incorporating longshot options in other markets. Here’s a look at the players I expect to contend come Sunday, including a recent past champ and a U.S. Ryder Cup hopeful who could make a big splash at just the right time:
To Win (odds via PointsBet)
Bryson DeChambeau (+2800): Don’t let the back-nine implosions fool you. DeChambeau hasn’t been himself this summer, dealing with caddie changes and various off-course controversies and distractions. But inside the ropes he’s closer than the results indicate, as late collapses at both Torrey Pines and TPC Southwind have skewed his recent results. DeChambeau remains the best in the business off the tee, and this is a course that should somewhat accentuate that strength based on (limited) course history and data. He knows what it takes to get the job done in the postseason, having captured the first two playoff events in 2018, and is looking to become the first player to reach the three-win plateau this season after victories at the 2020 U.S. Open and Bay Hill.
DeChambeau remains a high-variance option, but according to Data Golf he is the player who will benefit the most from course fit this week at Liberty National. Add in a viable venue to a mix where the brawny star has been great for stretches but has not yet put together a full performance this summer, and it feels like he deserves to be higher in the betting odds hierarchy this week.
Scottie Scheffler (+3000): It was at this event last year that Scheffler shined - for one day at least. His second-round 59 at TPC Boston was a highlight of the week, but eventually Dustin Johnson stole the show and won by 11 shots. Scheffler still remains in search of win No. 1 on Tour, but he has been rock solid of late and tends to play some of his best golf at these elite and limited-field events. He finished T-8 or better in each of the last three majors, was fifth at Concession and a runner-up in the WGC Match Play bracket. Five of his last six starts have gone for T-14 or better.
That consistency has gotten him into the mix for a potential Ryder Cup pick, and a big result this week would go a long way toward catching the eye of captain Steve Stricker. Scheffler is seventh in the field in SG: Total over the last 50 rounds, and sixth in the category when looking at just the last 24 rounds played. He tends to outplay the competition more off the tee than into and on the greens, and if there’s any common thread on success at Liberty National it’s that long and straight off the tee pay extra dividends: two years ago Reed and Abraham Ancer finished second and first, respectively, in SG: Off-the-Tee. Scheffler is overdue for a win and clearly has the game to contend at this level, so don’t be surprised if he breaks through as Ancer did two weeks ago.
Paul Casey (+4000): The Englishman isn’t known for his trophy conversion percentage, but it feels like another win could be in the works. Casey has been stellar since May while traveling around the world, finishing T-7 or better in five of his last seven starts, including two majors and stops in Germany and Japan. He followed his bronze medal playoff loss with a T-5 showing two weeks ago in Memphis and over the last 40 rounds is fifth among the field in SG: Total while ranking sixth in SG: Tee-to-Green.
Casey didn’t play this event two years ago so he doesn’t have the course experience of some others, and he’s coming at it from the other side of the ball-striking spectrum from Scheffler: very strong with his irons while looking to pick up the pace off the tee. But his overall game has been trending in a much more promising direction than this price seemingly indicates.
Top Finishes (odds via PointsBet)
Daniel Berger (+290 top-10): Only Jon Rahm (12) and Jordan Spieth (9) racked up more top-10 finishes this season than Berger, who totaled eight including his win at Pebble Beach. He’s one of several Americans looking to make a splash this week for Ryder Cup purposes, and he’s returning to a place where he had a stellar week four years ago during his Presidents Cup debut. Berger didn’t play here two years ago while coming off an injury, but his recent form has been strong: three top-10s in his last four starts, including two majors and a T-5 two weeks ago in Memphis. A similar showing this week, featuring a nearly three-fold return, should go a long way toward locking up his trip to Whistling Straits next month.
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Jason Kokrak (+750 top-10): It wasn’t that long ago that Kokrak was going off at a major below +3000 odds. His stock has cooled considerably since peaking around his win at Colonial in May, and it’s reflected by the fact that he’s all the way out to +7500 this week against a field that has major vibes. Kokrak missed the cut last week at Wyndham and has not posted a top-10 since edging Spieth in Fort Worth. But he tends to shine off the tee, and did so here two years ago en route to a T-12 finish. He’s a much better player this time around, even despite the recent swoon, and he’s still one of the best on Tour this season with putter in hand.
Jhonattan Vegas (+375 top-20): Vegas is on a bit of a tear that hasn’t gotten much attention. Dating back to his runner-up finish at Congaree in June, the Venezuelan has T-16 or better in five of his last six starts. That includes another second-place showing at the 3M Open and a top-20 finish at the Olympics. Vegas finished T-38 here two years ago but also knows the course from 2017, when he made his lone Presidents Cup appearance at Liberty National. At No. 49 in points he won’t be sweating the BMW bubble and will instead be looking to inch closer to East Lake. He’s fifth in the field in SG: OTT over the last 50 rounds, and this is a great price for him given he has cleared the top-20 hurdle with regularity this summer.
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