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For only the second time in the last 100 years, golfers set off to participate in the Summer Olympic Games. Led by Japan’s Rikuya Hoshino, play began at 7:30 a.m. local time (6:30 p.m. EDT) at Kasumigaseki Country Club. While Hoshino split the fairway of the first hole, it was his two playing competitors that stole the show on Thursday.
Hailing from Austria, yet having gone to college at the University of Georgia, Sepp Straka grabbed ahold of the early lead in the Tokyo Games. Thanks to precise iron-shots, the big Austrian fired a bogey-free round of 8-under 63.
With four birdies going out and four more coming in, Straka finished second on the day in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. That combined with posting +2.14 SG: Putting and it’s easy to see why Straka was able to tie the lowest round in Olympic men’s golf history.
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The player leading the way tee-to-green was the final man to round out Hoshino and Straka’s threesome. That would be Belgian, Thomas Pieters, who like Straka, went to school here in the United States, having attended the University of Illinois.
Aided by a hole-out eagle on the par-4 11th, Pieters came home in 5-under 30 to card a round of 6-under 65. Sitting in a tie for third alongside Mexico’s Carlos Ortiz, Pieters is in an eerily similar scenario compared to five years ago. Having placed fourth in the 2016 Games in Rio, Pieters narrowly missed out on the bronze medal, with Matt Kuchar stealing it with a final round 63.
Pieters, and others, will need to keep their foot on the gas as Kasumigaseki CC was defenseless in Round 1. With 11 of the holes playing under par on Thursday, the field took advantage of the accessible pin positions and soft conditions, posting an average score of 69.58.
As such, I reckon those who were unable to shoot under par in the first-round can kiss their gold medal aspirations goodbye. While 13 players posted rounds north of 71, seven shot exactly even-par. Sitting eight-strokes behind Straka these players will need to be flawless from here on out.
However, they are a strong bunch and more than capable as it includes PGA Tour winners from this season Cameron Smith, Garrick Higgo, and Justin Thomas. And of course, who could forget the Italian stallions, Guido Migliozzi and Renato Paratore, who also carded rounds of even-par on Thursday.
Despite sitting outside the top-10 on the leaderboard, it is Xander Schauffele who sits atop the odds boards at PointsBet Sportsbook. The leading American is five-strokes off the lead after his round of 3-under 68. He is hardly the only player with some work to do as Round 2 will begin this evening on the east coast.
Updated Odds to Win a Gold Medal (Odds Via PointsBet):
+1000: Xander Schauffele
+1200: Carlos Ortiz, Collin Morikawa, Paul Casey, Sepp Straka, Thomas Pieters, Viktor Hovland
+1600: Jazz Janewattananond, Jhonattan Vegas
+2000: Patrick Reed
+2200: Hideki Matsuyama, Rory McIlroy
+2800: Alex Noren
+3300: Abraham Ancer, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Sebastian Munoz, Si Woo Kim
+4000: Corey Conners
+5000: Joachim B. Hansen, Joaquin Niemann, Justin Thomas
Round 2 Plays (Odds Via PointsBet):
Paul Casey (+169) over Justin Thomas and Joaquin Niemann
I was able to catch some of this threesome’s first-round, at least the final hole where all the players missed the fairway. That being said, I understand that it was a frustrating round of golf for Thomas. Giving himself ample birdie opportunities, the American was unable to take advantage of some of his stellar iron-shots.
Some may assume the irons were consistent throughout the round, but they really weren’t. Thomas was narrowly positive in SG: Approach and has struggled with those clubs dating back to the U.S. Open. It would be easy to sit here and suggest they will magically return to form, but I don’t believe that will be the case.
It’s hard to say that Niemann is the larger threat of the two, but I believe he is. The putter has been solid as of late and was so again on Thursday. It was the ball-striking that let the Chilean down as he posted –1.03 SG: Off-the-Tee and –0.27 SG: Approach. That could easily flip on Friday, but rather than speculating, I’ll side with the man who posted strong figures in the first-round.
That would be Casey as he carded a round of 4-under 67, getting the better of Niemann by three-strokes and Thomas by four. It was a ho-hum day for Casey, gaining strokes across all four major statistical categories. The irons were fantastic and with some room for improvement on the greens I like him to keep the strong play going in the second round.
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Shane Lowry (+186) over Tommy Fleetwood and Patrick Reed
This threesome surprised me a bit on Thursday, between Reed’s performance and Lowry’s average day. However, how they each got the job done in Round 1 leads me to believe that Lowry could be the man to beat amongst his counterparts in Round 2.
Especially Reed, who truth be told, I was impressed with in Round 1. No practice round, no problem for the American. Reed arrived in Tokyo a bit later than his competitors, had a different man on the bag, and had been struggling a bit. With plenty going against him, he was still able to fire a round of 3-under 68. However, I would hold off on the chants for “Captain America” as Reed was third-to-last on approach, posting –3.14 SG: Approach.
Thanks to his trusty short-game, Reed was able to get around Kasumigaseki CC, as he led the field in SG: Around-the-Green on Thursday. While the short-game isn’t going to go anywhere, I don’t love the over reliance on it in a general sense. With Fleetwood also struggling with his irons, that leads me to Lowry in this three-ball.
The Irishman was great with his irons in the first-round posting 1.14 SG: Approach, yet his flat stick held him back. With only two birdies on the card, Lowry failed to take advantage of most of the scoreable holes, including all three par-5’s. With the way he struck the ball in Round 1, I’d expect that to change in Round 2, as he should give himself plenty of birdie opportunities that he’ll hopefully be able to convert.
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