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124 of the top-125 players are set to begin their FedEx Cup Playoffs this week at The Northern Trust. Liberty National in Jersey City, New Jersey will take center stage as it will host some iteration of this tournament for the fourth time. Also, the venue for the 2017 Presidents Cup, this Tom Kite and Bob Cupp design has seen its fair share of the limelight over the last 15 years.
Looking to the most recent Northern Trust at Liberty National in 2019, you can take a lot from the top of the leaderboard. Elite players rose to the top as they tend to do in the FedEx Cup Playoffs with Patrick Reed claiming victory at 16-under.
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From a statistical standpoint, a full tee-to-green test is to be expected with an emphasis not only on approach play, but also play from off-the-tee. Reed finished second in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee in 2019 with runner-up, Abraham Ancer, topping the field in said category.
Keeping this in mind, we’ll be targeting those players that are known as elite ball-strikers. Outside of a couple players inside the top-10, no one really lit it up on the greens. That should bode well for our selections as they tend to struggle from time-to-time with the flat stick.
The oddsmakers at PointsBet Sportsbook have priced a number of full-tournament head-to-head matchups ahead of The Northern Trust. In what will feature our 100th matchup selection of the year, let’s hope we can keep the recent momentum rolling into Liberty National.
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Head-to-Head Matchups (Odds Via PointsBet):
Paul Casey (-121) over Tony Finau
Casey may be my favorite selection of the week as it seems his name pops up on the Sunday leaderboard every week. While not completely true, that sentiment is validated when it comes to those tournaments that boast elite fields.
With finishes of T-5 at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude, T-15 at The Open, T-7 at the U.S. Open, T-4 at the PGA Championship, and T-5 at The Players, the world No. 21 has proven time and time again that he can compete with the world’s best.
While these strong outings were primarily due to his tee-to-green prowess, Casey may have found something with his putter in Memphis. Posting +7.0 SG: Putting at TPC Southwind, if Casey is able to post just a fraction of that number at Liberty National, he should once again find his name towards the top of the leaderboard.
Once the calendar flipped to spring, Finau’s game has been nowhere to be found. In 12 starts since the beginning of March, the 31-year-old has played his way into the weekend in only seven outings. One of those includes his last start at TPC Southwind, which featured no-cut, only hurting Finau’s case for The Northern Trust.
As the iron-play and tee-to-green as a whole has been a major disappointment over the last couple of months. Losing strokes in both departments in four consecutive starts in the United States, Finau’s putter has not been able to pick up the slack. In total, he doesn’t look like himself at the moment, while Casey has been rock steady for the entirety of this year.
Collin Morikawa (-115) over Dustin Johnson
When looking through the 2019 leaderboard, I was shocked to see Morikawa’s name. I guess time flies when you’re having fun as Morikawa finished in a tie for 52nd in his debut playoff appearance. To say he’s enjoyed ample success since 2019 would be an understatement and while he is coming off a forgettable start in Memphis, I figure the travel and major obligations finally caught up to him.
Before his T-26 finish at TPC Southwind, the two-time major winner was on an absolute tear. On the heels of his Open Championship, Morikawa narrowly missed out on the bronze medal in the Olympic Games, falling just short to C.T. Pan. These results followed up two more close calls as the 24-year-old captured a top-5 finish at the U.S. Open and a playoff loss at the hands of Patrick Cantlay at the Memorial.
While the iron-play that we have grown accustomed to has hit a speed bump in his last two outings, the rest of his game has enjoyed a slight uptick. If that remains the case this week at Liberty National, I expect Morikawa to contend as his elite approach game will likely return.
It’s a bit scary to wager against Johnson in the FedEx Cup Playoffs as he boasts six postseason victories in his career. However, the defending Northern Trust and FedEx Cup champion has failed to look like his 2020 self in recent memory.
Despite three top-10 finishes since the beginning of June, Johnson hasn’t legitimately contended in a tournament since his victory at the Saudi International in February. Couple that with the inherent volatility that he brings week-to-week and I’d rather side with Morikawa’s higher floor.
Justin Thomas (-110) over Brooks Koepka
This may be an overreaction to Koepka’s poor performance in Memphis, but I will gladly be proven wrong if that is the case. Posting –1.3 SG: Approach, -5.9 SG: Around-the-Green, and –1.3 SG: Putting, the 2019 WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational winner was never able to garner any momentum at TPC Southwind.
While the major championship results have continued to stack up, the lack of momentum isn’t anything new if you’re in the Koepka camp. Outside of the major championships, Koepka has two missed cuts and only one top-5 finish since the beginning of May. While it is true that he has played sparingly during this time, I find myself looking to Thomas as he has proven to be a postseason threat in the past.
With two playoff victories to his name, Thomas arrives to Liberty National off a strong iron performance at TPC Southwind. Posting +6.1 SG: Approach in Memphis, Thomas struggled on the greens as he has been known to do, especially this season.
Yet, he proved with his 2019 performance in this tournament that a cooperative putter is not a necessity. En route to a T-12 finish two years ago, Thomas posted +6.1 SG: Approach and –1.3 SG: Putting. In what is the new norm for the world No. 5, I could see a very similar statistical breakdown and result unfold this week.
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