Jalil Farooq, WR, Oklahoma vs. TCU - Under 0.5 Touchdowns
Injuries are rearing their ugly head for the Sooners heading into their season finale, with both QB Dillon Gabriel and WR Jalil Farooq sustaining upper body injuries last Saturday against BYU. Farooq took a big shot over the middle on his fourth quarter game-clinching reception and looked visibly shaken up.
Gabriel’s availability is a huge component here too, as the Sooners leaned heavily on the run after he departed in the late second quarter with Jackson Arnold executing a conservative gameplan that saw him go 5-of-9 for 33 yards and 3.7 yards per attempt in a half of work. Coach Brent Venables is optimistic the two playmakers will be in action, saying “I feel like both those guys will, if they continue to progress throughout the week, that they’ll be available this weekend”.
Even with Gabriel at full health, Farooq has cleared his 66.5 Receiving Yards mark in four of 11 games, and once in his last five. A big factor is Farooq’s involvement in the run game, logging 16 carries for 89 yards as an all-purpose weapon. His 0.5 anytime touchdown scored prop is listed on the parlay markets right now and represent an early gift if you have access to them, with Farooq scoring just twice in 11 games. Grab the Under TD prop ASAP and pair it with one of the other best bets listed here.
Josh Hoover, QB, TCU at Oklahoma - Over 22.5 Completions
TCU has a shot at bowl eligibility, and in what has become a yearly ritual, opening day starting QB Chandler Morris has been surpassed by his backup following an injury. Since taking over TCU’s lightning fast offense that ranks fourth nationally in plays per second (21.5), Hoover has averaged 43,6 pass attempts per game and completed at least 23 passes in all five of his starts. Despite being a first time starter, he’s been excellent at navigating the pocket, posting a strong 13% pressure-to-sack rate while earning a 75.9 PFF pass grade. TCU also has the benefit of playing an Oklahoma defense that has allowed 20+ points to each of their last seven opponents. With Hoover completing 64% of his passes in a prolific passing offense that is likely to be in a trailing position, this 22.5 completions prop is an easy play.
Will Rogers, QB, Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss - Under 197.5 Passing Yards
Lideatrick Griffin, WR, Miss State vs. Ole Miss - Under 47.5 Receiving Yards
The collapse of the Mississippi State offense has been swift and disastrous, ranking 125th in success rate (36.3%), 117th in EPA/Play and scoring more than 17 points just once in SEC play. Over their last four Power Five games, MSU is averaging 7.2 points per contest, so it’s not hard to see why former HC Zach Arnett was let go last week. Despite Arnett’s ouster, the Bulldogs returning starting QB Will Rogers amassed a mere 144 passing yards against 3-8 Southern Miss of the Sun Belt Conference. In fact The Mississippi State passing offense has broken the 197-yard barrier just once all season against Power Five teams, so it’s hard to figure out how Rogers’ line got so high in the first place. “Tulu” Griffin hasn’t cracked 47.5 receiving yards in his last five games and is worth a stab at that price too. Take the value here and fade the Mississippi State passing attack.
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Luther Burden, WR, Missouri - Over 89.5 Receiving Yards
Burden is my #1 class of 2025 NFL Draft wide receiver who caught at least seven passes for 96+ yards in each of his first six games before dealing with nagging injuries that slowed the dynamic playmaker down for a four game stretch. However Burden looked back to his old self last week in a 33-31 nailbiter against Florida where he caught 9-of-14 passes for 158 yards and destroyed his 110+ ALT receiving yardage line at +320. This week Burden faces Arkansas’ 81st ranked pass defense and has actually slightly dropped from his opening line of 91.5 down to 89.5 receiving yards. With Missouri looking to keep their superstar WR happy and out of the transfer portal, I think he gets another 10+ target workload in his final regular season game, which means Burden clears his 89.5 Receiving Yards prop.
