Washington (5-4) enters this contest an even 3-3 in Big Ten play during their maiden Big Ten campaign. They dropped a 24-19 decision to in-state rival Wazzu before bouncing back to beat Northwestern the following week. Since then they’ve lost a heartbreaker to @Rutgers where the Huskies boasted a sky-high 97% win expectancy, beat a rebuilding Michigan, and were manhandled by @Iowa and @Indiana. Washington is 5-1 at home after taking out a limping USC, but have yet to win a game on the road having played just three games away from Husky Stadium. UW’s secondary is one of the country’s truly elite units, ranking 2nd in yards per dropback and 8th in suppressing explosive pass plays. The offense relies on a volume-based passing attack that emphasizes accuracy (5th in completion rate) over magnitude (111th in 20+ yard pass plays).
The Nittany Lions (7-1) cruised through the first half with their closest victory being a Week 7, 33-30 comeback win over @USC still came with an 86% win expectancy. Besides that, each of their six other wins carried perfect 100% win expectancies, with PSU exhibiting a non-Ohio State mastery of their Big Ten opponents. While OC Andy Kotelnicki’s offense ranks 5th in success rate, 11th in EPA/play and eighth in 3-and-out%, they are also 89th in yards per successful play and 85th in explosiveness. Defensively the Nittany Lions have been exceptional once again, ranking 2nd in SP+. Their lockdown secondary is allowing just 3.6 yards per completion in spite of a somewhat subdued PSU pass rush that ranks 46th nationally with a 6.5% sack rate.
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Game Details and How to watch Penn State @ Washington
· Date: Saturday, November 9, 2024
· Time: 8:00 PM EST
· Site: Beaver Stadium
· City: University Park, PA
· TV/Streaming: Peacock
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Game odds for Penn State @ Washington
The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of BetMGM:
- Moneyline: Penn State (-550), Washington (+400)
- Spread: Penn State -13.5
- Over/Under: 46.5 points
The line opened right at the key number PSU -14 but has since slipped below that mark and is trading at -12.5/13.5 depending on the book. The notable moneyline move came on the Penn State side, dropping at -625 but now is being offered at -500. There hasn’t been much variance on the total, opening at 46 and currently showing 45.5 to 46.5.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“These two teams have routinely produced slow-paced games, with 78% of Washington’s games going Under and 75% of Penn State’s contest failing to meet their allotted total. With both defenses representing the strengths of these two programs, i’m backing the Under 46.5 game total.”
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BetMGM College Football Highlights: Week 11
“As it stands right now, the biggest need is Ole Miss against Georgia . The red, or should I say crimson, hot Hoosiers are also a big liability and we’ll be saying Go Blue on Saturday. In a battle of SEC power houses, the book will also pull for Bama as they visit Death Valley and LSU.” – Seamus Magee, Sport Trading Manager, BetMGM
Most bet games (tickets)
1. Georgia-Ole Miss
2. Alabama-LSU
3. Michigan-Indiana
Most bet teams (tickets)
1. Georgia -3
2. LSU +3
3. Indiana -14.5
Most bet teams (handle)
1. Georgia -3
2. LSU +3
3. Indiana -14.5
Most bet Overs (tickets)
1. Michigan-Indiana 49.5
2. Alabama-LSU 58.5
3. Colorado-Texas Tech 62.5
Most bet Unders (tickets)
1. Georgia-Ole Miss 55.5
2. Mississippi State-Tennessee 61.5
3. Iowa State-Kansas 50.5
Most bet underdogs to win (tickets)
1. LSU +125
2. Michigan +450
3. Mizzou +115
Quarterback matchup for Penn State @ Washington
- Penn State: Five-star QB Drew Allar sustained a knee injury and was questionable in the leadup to their pivotal Ohio State game, but the cagey vet managed to gut it out despite a rather uninspiring performance. Despite the slight step back against OSU, Allar ranks 9th nationally with an 87.6 PFF passing grade and is handling pressure extremely well, rating 6th in FBS with a 73rd percentile under-pressure grade. As a team, PSU ranks 3rd in passing success rate and is gaining a first down on 65% of their completions. Despite their recent loss to Ohio State, the Nittany Lions are still a legitimate national title contender.
- Washington: Will Rogers spent his formative college years under the learning tree of air raid icon Mike Leach at Mississippi State. To date, Rogers is one of the most accomplished signal callers in FBS, accruing 14,599 passing yards with a 107-to-32 ratio over his half-decade leading MSU/Washington’s offenses. 2024 has been no exception, with Rogers completing 71.1% of his passes for 2,284 yards and a 13-to-4 TD/INT ratio. His 81st percentile PFF passing grade is the second highest single-season mark in his career to this point. Washington will also utilize dynamic dual-threat Freshman QB Demond Williams in goal line and short yardage situations to add a different look from pro-style QB Rogers. He is the future of the position at UW.
Betting trends & recent stats
- Penn State is 1-4 (.200) against the spread when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards this season, tied for 8th-worst among Power Conference teams. (Average: .465)
- PSU ranks 10th in defensive rushing success rate/8th in EPA/rush allowed. However, they’re also susceptible to chunk run plays, ranking 97th in yards per successful rush and 116th with an 81.3% success rate allowed.
- Washington’s offense has done quite well between the 20’s, ranking 33rd in success rate and 21st in efficiency. However they’re not finishing drives effectively, ranking 126th with 3.51 points per scoring opportunity and 106th in red zone touchdowns rate (54%).
- Drew Allar is averaging 9.7 YPA on 184 pass attempts this season, 2nd-best of qualified Big Ten quarterbacks. Washington’s defense has allowed just 5.1 YPA this season, best among Big Ten defenses.
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