Washington (5-5) enters this contest 3-4 in Big Ten play during their inaugural campaign in the expanded B10 conference. They dropped a 24-19 decision to in-state rival Washington State before bouncing back to decisively handle Northwestern by a score of 24-5 the following week. Since then, they let a golden opportunity slip away against @Rutgers, in a contest where the Huskies boasted a sky-high 97%-win expectancy, before beating a rebuilding Michigan and getting dominated by heavyweights @Iowa and @Indiana. Washington is 5-1 at home after taking out a limping USC but have lost all four games away from Husky Stadium. UW’s secondary is one of the country’s truly elite units, ranking 4th in yards per dropback and 8th in suppressing explosive pass plays. The offense relies on a volume-based passing attack that emphasizes accuracy (71% completion rate = 5th) over magnitude (116th in 20+ yard pass plays).
UCLA (4-5, 3-4) had a rough introduction to the Big Ten, losing their first four conference games against Indiana, Oregon, @ Penn State and Minnesota. However, HC DeShaun Foster has managed to turn around their luck over the last three games, defeating @Rutgers 35-32, @Nebraska 27-20 and Iowa 20-17 in a dramatic Friday night victory. Now, riding a crisp three-game win streak, UCLA travels to play a Washington team that has been nearly unbeatable at home over the last two seasons. The Bruins are struggling to move the ball on the ground, ranking 131st in FBS with a 30% rushing success rate and 3rd-to-last in yards before contact. Defensively they’ve been exceptional at avoiding big plays, ranking 11th in overall explosiveness and 37th with a 5.3% 20+ play rate. However, they rank 124th with a 46.6% success rate allowed and 125th in points per scoring opportunity.
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Game Details and How to watch UCLA @ Washington
· Date: Friday, November 15, 2024
· Time: 9:00 PM EST
· Site: Husky Stadium
· City: Seattle, WA
· TV/Streaming: FOX
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Game odds for UCLA @ Washington courtesy of BetMGM
- Moneyline: Washington (-170), UCLA (+145)
- Spread: Washington -3.5
- Over/Under: 46.5 points
This game actually opened in look-ahead markets at a robust Washington -8 but has been beaten down to -3.5 with a scattered -4 if you look for it. There has been relatively little moneyline movement on either side. The total has held steady as well, dropping at it’s current 46.5 mark with a range of 46 to 47.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“Washington is 8-2 to the Under and is likely to play two quarterbacks as they prep Demond Williams for next year. UCLA’s games go Under 67% of the time and are top-10 at suppressing big plays on defense. With rain potentially in the forecast up in Seattle, i’m taking the Under 46.5 points.”
Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast as hosts Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp actionable insight, market analysis and statistical data to help bettors gain more information before placing their wagers.
BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship
Line movement (Last Week to Now)
- Ohio State +350 to +300
- Texas +550 to +450
- Ole Miss +3500 to +1000
Highest Ticket%
- Ohio State 14.0%
- Texas 11.5%
- Georgia 10.6%
Highest Handle%
- Ohio State 17.7%
- Georgia 16.3%
- Texas 11.4%
Biggest Liabilities
- Colorado
- Ohio State
- Tennessee
Quarterback matchup for UCLA @ Washington
- UCLA: Ethan Garbers entered 2023 as the backup for promising five-star freshman recruit Dante Moore. However, when Moore faltered in his shot at the starting gig, Garbers dutifully stepped in and completed 67% of his passes with an 11-to-3 ratio and a commendable 77.7 PFF offensive grade for the 8-5 Bruins. He won the job outright this year but hasn’t had the same success, as is evidenced by his 7-to-12 big time throw-to-turnover worthy play rate and 85.5 NFL passer rating (107.0 NFL PR in 2023). That being said, Garbers is coming off his three best games of the year, having completed 70-of-97 passes with an 8-to-2 ratio during UCLA’s win streak.
- Washington: Will Rogers spent his early college years under the tutelage of air raid legend Mike Leach at Mississippi State. Rogers is one of the most accomplished signal callers in college football, accumulating 14,658 passing yards with a 107-to-33 ratio over his half-decade leading MSU/Washington’s offenses. 2024 has been no exception, with Rogers completing 71.4% of his passes for 2,343 yards and a 13-to-5 TD/INT ratio. His 81st percentile PFF passing grade is the second highest single season mark in his career to this point. There is also speculation that dynamic dual-threat Freshman QB Demond Williams could see extended work over the last two games as the program would like to get the promising youngster more experience. He will be the team’s starter in 2025.
Trends & recent stats
- Bruins RB TJ Harden ranks 86th out of 87 qualifying Power Four rushers in averaging 3.8 yards per carry. Cal RB Jaydn Ott ranks last with a disappointing 2.4 YPC.
- UCLA QB Ethan Garbers has completed just 29.6% of passes (8 completions/27 net pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season, worst among Power Conference Quarterbacks. For perspective, Rocco Becht was 2nd-worst with a 43% RZ completion rate, 13% higher than Garbers.
- Washington QBs have thrown for 2,645 passing yards in 10 games this season, 33rd-best among FBS teams. UCLA’s defense has allowed 252.8 passing yards per game this season, 20th-worst among FBS defenses.
- Huskies Denzel Boston has been targeted 16 times in the Red Zone this season, tied for the most among Power Four skill players with Maryland WR Tai Felton.
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