One of the ascending programs of 2024, Miami (10-2) ripped off 9 straight victories to begin the year before earning the Canes’ 2nd double-digit win season since their storied 2003 National Championship team. However, late season upset losses to @Georgia Tech and @Syracuse derailed The U’s dreams of a CFP Playoff berth. Miami’s high-flying offense ranks 3rd in success rate (52.3%), 1st in 3-and-out percentage (15.2%) and 1st in EPA/Play. Their main problem has been a big-play-vulnerable defense that ranks 117th in yards per successful play (13.4) and 116th in marginal explosiveness.
Iowa State (10-3) was rolling along at 8-0 heading into their Week 9 Bye week with extra time to prepare for Texas Tech. Unfortunately, the Cyclones came out flat and lost a 23-22 decision to the Red Raiders before suffering a second-consecutive 45-36 defeat at the hands of @Kansas. ISU rebounded to win their last three to slide into the B12 Title Game, where they got destroyed by Arizona State 45-19. Though Iowa State played in 5 games where they had a 50%-win expectancy or less, HC Matt Campbell and crew managed to go 3-2 in those close contests. Their calling card on offense is a potent passing offense that ranks 35th in EPA/dropback and 33rd in explosiveness, while their secondary is allowing the 3rd lowest completion rate in the country (52.8%).
NBC Sports has all the latest info and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from BetMGM, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.
Listen to the B1G Talk podcast with Todd Blackledge and Noah Eagle for the most compelling storylines across all of college football, with the biggest teams on the rise and the latest rankings.
Game Details and How to watch The Pop-Tarts Bowl: Iowa State vs. Miami
· Date: Friday, December 28th, 2024
· Time: 3:30 PM EST
· Site: Camping World Stadium
· City: Orlando, FL
· TV/Streaming: ABC
Want to check out the other games on the College Football schedule this week? We’ve got you covered right here on NBC Sports with all the matchup, venue, game-time and TV/streaming info so you won’t miss any of the action!
Game odds for The Pop-Tarts Bowl: Iowa State vs. Miami
- Moneyline: Miami (-175), Iowa State (+150)
- Spread: Miami -3.5
- Over/Under: 56.5 points
QB Cam Ward has stated that he will play, which has resulted in the opening spread of Iowa State (-1/-115) flipping all the way over to Miami (-3.5/-175). The game total was similarly affected by the news, increasing from an open of 53.5 to 56.5.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“Iowa State’s defense just allowed ASU to hang 45 points on them, while teams like Utah, Kansas and UCF have scored 4+ touchdowns on the Cyclones. Miami has scored at least 30+ points in all but once contest all year long. With Cam Ward slated to play and the Canes’ team total set at 29.5 points, I’m backing the OVER.”
Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast as hosts Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp actionable insight, market analysis and statistical data to help bettors gain more information before placing their wagers.
Quarterback matchup for The Pop-Tarts Bowl - Iowa State vs. Miami
- Miami: Washington State transfer Cam Ward was a revelation for the Hurricanes this season, completing 293-of-435 passes for 4.123 yards, 9.5 YPA and a 36-to-7 ratio while contending for a Heisman Trophy. His 92.2 PFF overall grade ranks second nationally behind only Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart (92.8), while Ward’s 27 big time throws ranks fifth nationally. He has been successful at all three levels, but especially on deep throws with a 94% passing grade and a 12-to-0 ratio on passes 20+ yards downfield.
- Iowa State: Despite completing a pedestrian 58.7% of his passes (77th of 98 qualifiers), 2nd year starter Rocco Becht was one of just 18 passers to clear the 3,000-yard mark during the regular season. Becht has a daredevil aspect to his game, posting a middling 18-to-19 big time throw-to-turnover worthy play rate. The son of former Indianapolis Colts TE Anthony Becht, Rocci is sporting a strong 11.2% pressure-to-sack rate, but his passing grade of 68.5 is an objectively uninspiring mark.
Pop-Tarts Bowl: Iowa State vs. Miami - Trends & Recent Stats
- Jeremiah Cooper has intercepted 7 passes since the 2023 season, tied for 7th-most among power conference defensive players
- Iowa State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 38% in the Red Zone since the 2023 season, best among power conference teams.
- Rocco Becht has completed just 43% of passes (20 completions/47 net pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season, 3rd-worst among Power Conference quarterbacks.
- Rocco Becht has thrown 7 TD passes in close and late situations since the 2023 season, most among Big 12 quarterbacks.
- Iowa State are 3-5 (.375) against the spread when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team this season, 33rd-worst in FBS. (Average: .485)
- Miami QBs have thrown for 4,304 passing yards in 12 games this season, 2nd-best among FBS teams. Iowa State’s defense has allowed just 161.7 passing yards per game this season, 3rd-best among FBS defenses.
- Miami has allowed a completion rate of just 44% in close and late situations this season, 2nd-best among power conference programs.
- Cam Ward has completed passes for 20+ yards on 10 of his 41 total passing attempts on 3rd and long this season, best among FBS Quarterbacks.
- Miami has tackled opponents for a loss on 11 of 44 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season, 3rd-best among Power Conference teams.
- Iowa State’s RBs has averaged just 6.5 yards after the catch this season, 26th-worst among FBS rushers. Miami’s defense has allowed 10.6 yards after contact to RBs this season, 13th-worst among FBS defenses.
College Football talk is taking over Bet the Edge every Thursday throughout the season. BET THE EDGE is your source for all things sports betting. Get all of Vaughn Dalzell, Eric Froton, and Brad Thomas’ insights Thursdays at 6AM ET right here or wherever you get your favorite podcasts.
Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.
BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship
Line movement (Open to Now)
- Texas +1000 to +300
- Ohio State +700 to +375
- Oregon +900 to +400
- Georgia +500 to +550
Highest Ticket%
- Ohio State 12.3%
- Texas 9.7%
- Georgia 9.7%
Highest Handle%
- Ohio State 15.0%
- Georgia 13.6%
- Texas 10.4%
Biggest Liabilities
- Arizona State
- Notre Dame
- Boise State
Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:
- Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
- Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
- Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
- Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)
- Eric Froton (@CFFroton)
