The college football season ends Monday night with Ohio State and Notre Dame playing for the national championship. There will be talent on display at practically every position.
Who will excel on the national stage? Who will disappoint? Most importantly, which betting markets are most vulnerable?
The following is the definitive guide to betting the player prop market courtesy of NBC Sports’ college expert Eric Froton (@CFFroton).
Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio State: Over 4.5 Receptions
I was fortunate to attend the Ohio State @ Notre Dame game last year with my Bet The Edge co-host Brad Thomas, and while the OC and QB were different, Emeka Egbuka was the leading weapon for OSU accruing 7 receptions for 95 yards in the 17-14 slugfest. While Texas played zone coverage that restrained the impact of Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith, Notre Dame plays Man-to-Man more than any other team in the country (63.7%) which Ryan Day used to drag Egbuka across the field through traffic and get the ball in his hands in space. I think he has another productive outing.
Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame: Over 8.5 First Quarter Rushing Yards | FanDuel (-120) | .75 Units
Notre Dame is at their best when running the ball consistently on early downs and countering with their efficient passing game that’s completing 66.7% of their throws as a team. With the Irish down 10-3 heading into half, they proceeded to lean heavily on the ground game in the third quarter, running the ball on 7 of their first 8 plays coming out of half. ND’s ability to win on the interior helped create the 1-on-1 matchup that produced a 54-yard touchdown strike to Jaden Greathouse.
Love leads all P4 skill players with 9.3 all-purpose yards per first down touch and leads the FBS with 7.1 yards per first half carry. I don’t think Notre Dame waits until the second half to attack Ohio State on the ground like they did last game, which means I think Love gets 4-5 first quarter totes that should put him in prime position to clear a very palatable 8.5 rushing yards first quarter total.
Beaux Collins, WR, Notre Dame: Under 1.5 Receptions
Collins ran just 3 pass routes last game against Penn State after sustaining a calf injury in Round 2 vs. Georgia. Even when healthy, Collins has only reached 2+ receptions on 2 of his last 7 games, serving as the high risk-high reward deep shot specialist. Further complicating matters is Collins’ woeful 16% drop rate that ranks 4th-worst among all Power Conference receivers this season. With all offseason to heal up, it’s reasonable to expect Collins to give it the ole college try and at least make an appearance, which would be a dream scenario for the purposes of this wager since he’s already unlikely to catch multiple passes even without the omnipresent injury issues. This line is still up on Bovada and represents my Best Bet.
Riley Leonard, QB, Notre Dame: Under 37.5 Rushing Yards
I’m convinced that Ohio State treats Leonard in a similar manner that they targeted Nico Iamaleava in Round 1 of the CFP Playoffs - spy him every play and dare Notre Dame to either put the ball in the air, or to pound them with the Love/Price/Williams triumvirate. If ND gets down and is forced to air-it-out in a come from behind play script for the first time all year, then OSU’s ferocious pass rush that ranks 1st nationally in sacks per dropback rate at 10.4% is going to be unleashed which is assuredly going to result in negative yardage for Leonard. Throw in the always unfortunate injury possibility, which was a factor against Penn State with backup QB Steven Angeli closing out the first half, and I’m skeptical Leonard is able to clear his 37.5 Rushing Yardage total.
Enjoy the game. Best of luck with all your wagers.
Follow Eric Froton (@CFFroton) throughout the game for in game betting opportunities.
