Ohio (10-3) suffered a pair of forgivable early losses to Power Four programs @Syracuse and @Kentucky before winning eight of their last nine games en route to a MAC Conference Championship Game victory. The only Group of Five team they lost to was Miami of Ohio (30-20), a loss they avenged with authority courtesy of a 38-3 beating in the MAC Championship. Ohio’s run game is the engine of the offense, ranking 24th in rush success rate and 10th in yards before contact. Similarly, the Bobcats’ run defense is an elite unit that ranks 2nd in rush success rate allowed and 11th in yards per rush.
HC Tim Albin accepted the job at Charlotte and will not be on the sideline, with OC Brian Smith serving as Interim HC.
Jacksonville State (9-4) started the year slowly, losing to Coastal Carolina, @Louisville and @Eastern Michigan for a disappointing 0-3 start. From that point forward, JSU has thoroughly dominated their C-USA schedule with their lone blemish being a 19-17 loss to WKU in Week 14 when they had already clinched an appearance in the conference championship game. Jax State avenged that loss the next week with a dominant 52-12 victory in the C-USA Championship. As you might expect from a HC Rich Rodriguez-led offense, their punishing run game ranks 5th in EPA/rush and 13th in YAC (3.13).
Unfortunately, like Albin, RichRod accepted another job and will be returning to West Virginia with OC Rod Smith taking over for the bowl.
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Game Details and How to watch 2024 Ohio vs. Jacksonville State Live
· Date: Friday, 20, 2024
· Time: 12:00 PM EST
· Camping World Stadium
· City: Orlando, FL
· TV/Streaming: ESPN
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Game odds for Ohio vs. Jacksonville State
*odds courtesy of BetMGM
- Moneyline: Ohio (-160), Jacksonville State (+135)
- Spread: Ohio (-2.5)
- Over/Under: 54.5 points
Ohio opened as a -2.5/-130 favorite and has since increased to -3.5/-160 in most places, while JSU has bumped from +110 to +135. The total has also shot up from 52 to a high of 55.5.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“Both programs will be without their Head Coaches who move onto other jobs, and several Jax State starters are in the portal. Though some players may suit up, Jacksonville State appears to be in a more compromised position from a roster standpoint. Ohio is 9-4 ATS and QB Parker Navarro is confirmed to be playing, which is enough for me to back the Bobcats getting +2.5 points.”
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Quarterback matchup for Ohio vs. Jacksonville State
- Ohio: Parker Navarro completed 65.7% of his passes for 2,169 yards, 8.1 YPA and a middling 12-to-10 ratio. Navarro supplemented his numbers by rushing 145 times for 936 yards, 6.5 YPC and 15 touchdowns en route to winning the MAC Championship. He is testing opposing secondaries for a 10.1 ADOT and has earned a strong 80th percentile PFF overall grade thus far in 2024.
- Jacksonville State: The former Presbyterian and Furman signal caller, Tyler Huff is cut from a similar dual-threat mold as Navarro, rushing 215 times for 1,343 yards, 6.2 YPC and 14 touchdowns. On the passing side Huff is completing 60.6% of his throws for 2,179 yards and 8.4 YPA with a 13-to-6 ratio this year. He has been positively electric from a performance standpoint, earning a pristine 90.4 offensive grade according to Pro Football Focus.
Betting Trends & Recent Stats
- Jacksonville State has allowed 2.5 yards from scrimmage per touch in the Red Zone this season, 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference programs
- Tyler Huff (JVS) has averaged 16.5 carries per game since the 2023 season, 2nd-highest among FBS quarterbacks.
- Games involving the Gamecocks have gone over in 61% of their games when favorites since the 2023 season, 24th- in FBS. (Average: 49%)
- Jacksonville State is 11-6 (.611) against the spread when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season, 7th-best in FBS. (Average: .423)
- Ohio has allowed just 10.4 yards per completion since the 2023 season, 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference teams.
- Parker Navarro has averaged 6.5 Yards per Carry since the 2023 season, 3rd-best among FBS quarterbacks.
- Parker Navarro has completed 77% of passes (24 completions/31 net pass attempts) in close and late situations since the 2023 season, 3rd-best among FBS quarterbacks.
- Ohio is 18-1 (.947) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season, 4th-best in FBS. (Average: .666)
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BetMGM College Football Highlights: First Round
Most bet games (tickets)
- Indiana-Notre Dame
- Ohio State-Tennessee
- Clemson-Texas
- SMU-Penn State
Most bet teams (tickets)
- Tennessee +7.5
- Indiana +7.5
- Clemson +11.5
- Penn State -8.5
Most bet teams (handle)
- Tennessee +7.5
- Indiana +7.5
- Penn State -8.5
- Texas -11.5
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