Georgia Southern (8-4) HC Tyson Helton and company lost a competitive 56-45 opener to CFP Playoff #2 seed Boise State and got bashed 52-13 by @Ole Miss in Week 4. Against non-CFP contenders the Eagles have gone 8-2 with quality wins over James Madison, @South Alabama and Sun Belt Conference Champions Marshall. GaSo 70th SP+ defense boasts a pass-heavy approach, ranking 108th in standard downs run rate while throwing 34.6% of their pass attempts behind the line of scrimmage, the 2nd-highest rate in FBS. Defensively the Eagles rank 119th in havoc rate and 132nd in yards after contact.
Sam Houston (9-3) has made a smooth transition to the FBS level in their second season, scoring victories over preseason Sun Belt favorite Texas State and 2023 CUSA Champion Liberty enroute to an impressive nine-win campaign. The Bearkats are one of the least dangerous offenses in the country, ranking 132nd in 20+ yard play rate and 124th in marginal explosiveness, with many of their issues stemming from an anemic pass game that ranks 123rd in yards per dropback (5.5). SHSU’s 50th ranked defense is the backbone of this team and in many ways the offense’s polar opposite, ranking 2nd with a microscopic 3.4% explosive play rate and 5th with an impressive 40% 3-and-out percentage.
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Game Details and How to watch the R+L Carriers Bowl: Georgia Southern vs. Sam Houston
· Date: Saturday, December 17th, 2024
· Time: 12:00 PM EST
· Site: Caesar’s Superdome
· City: New Orleans, LA
· TV/Streaming: ESPN2
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Game odds for R+L Carriers Bowl: Georgia Southern vs. Sam Houston
*odds courtesy of BetMGM
- Moneyline: Georgia Southern (-225), Sam Houston (+180)
- Spread: Georgia Southern (-6)
- Over/Under: 48.5 points
The game opened with Georgia Southern favored by -4.5/-180, but that has since spiked to the -6/6.5 range with Sam Houston showing a moneyline high of +190. The total has moved upwards from 46.5 to a current market high of 49 over at Caesar’s.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“Sam Houston’s defense-first approach is producing Unders at a 75% clip, while Georgia Southern is a somewhat surprising 7-5 to the Under. SHSU is being hit with a series of portal declarations, but many are expected to still suit up and play. I’m betting that the Bearkats’ punchless offense and stout D will keep this game Under 48.5 points.”
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Quarterback matchup for Georgia Southern vs. Sam Houston
- Georgia Southern: JC French leads GaSo’s short-range passing attack that stresses accuracy over big play ability. He is completing passes at a 66% rate with a 7.8 ADOT that ranks 134th out of 154 FBS passers with 200+ dropbacks. French has thrown for 2,627 yards with a 16-to-7 ratio and a 68th percentile offensive grade. Despite running a decidedly pass-heavy offense, Georgia Southern has been very conservative, ranking 22nd nationally with a 1.7% interception rate.
- Sam Houston: A classic dual-threat signal caller, Hunter Watson has accounted for at least 2 passing/rushing touchdowns in eight of his 11 games this season. He’s averaging 56.5 rushing yards and 145.3 passing yards per game with 18 total touchdowns (7 rushing). Watson’s 25.6% pressure-to-sack rate ranks 133rd out of 154 FBS qualifying signal callers (200 dropbacks) and his 6.3 yards per attempt ranks 136th, illustrating his limitations as a passer. As you’d expect, his 70th percentile PFF rushing grade is well ahead of Watson’s middling passing grade of 62.3.
Betting Trends & Recent Stats
- Georgia Southern has tackled opponents for a loss on just 55 of 415 rushing attempts (13% TFL%) this season, 35th-worst in FBS.
- Georgia Southern has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 149 of 869 carries since the 2023 season, 3rd-worst in FBS.
- Georgia Southern is 6-1 (.857) when allowing less than 200 passing yards since the 2023 season, 16th-best in FBS. (Average: .610)
- Opponents have averaged 21.2 completions per game against Georgia Southern this season, 15th-worst in FBS.
- Sam Houston’s offense has thrown for 1,973 passing yards in 12 games this season, 12th-worst among FBS offenses. Georgia Southern’s defense has allowed 262.4 passing yards per game this season, 12th-worst among FBS defenses.
- Sam Houston has allowed passes of 20+ yards on just 22 of 364 attempts this season, 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams.
- Sam Houston is undefeated (8-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass this season, best among Non-Power Conference Teams. (Average: .645)
- Sam Houston is 12-6 (.667) against the spread when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season, 11th-best in FBS. (Average: .533)
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BetMGM College Football Highlights: First Round
Most bet games (tickets)
- Indiana-Notre Dame
- Ohio State-Tennessee
- Clemson-Texas
- SMU-Penn State
Most bet teams (tickets)
- Tennessee +7.5
- Indiana +7.5
- Clemson +11.5
- Penn State -8.5
Most bet teams (handle)
- Tennessee +7.5
- Indiana +7.5
- Penn State -8.5
- Texas -11.5
BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship
Line movement (Open to Now)
- Oregon +900 to +350
- Texas +1000 to +350
- Georgia +500 to +500
- Ohio State +700 to +500
Highest Ticket%
- Ohio State 11.9%
- Texas 10.1%
- Georgia 9.6%
Highest Handle%
- Ohio State 14.8%
- Georgia 12.4%
- Alabama 11.4%
Biggest Liabilities
- Alabama
- Arizona State
Notre Dame
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